Potential Fleet Size of Private Autonomous Vehicles in Germany and the US

Abstract

There are high expectations on autonomous vehicles promising a safer, more efficient and comfortable (auto)mobility experience. On the other hand it is important to discuss possible rebound effects going along with such a development. New user groups e.g. people who do not hold a driving license today, or are currently unable to drive because of physical and/or age-related constraints suddenly are enabled to “drive” a passenger car. In addition the past has shown that increasing efficiency and enhancing the comfort leads to a higher travel demand and subsequently more vehicle miles traveled. To support the research on the impact of autonomous vehicles on the transport system it is important to analyze the potential share of autonomous vehicles (AVs) on the passenger vehicle fleet in the future. The paper presents results from modelling private autonomous vehicle scenarios for the year 2035 for Germany and the US to estimate the number of vehicles within the fleet equipped with automation technologies Level 4 and higher (SAE in SAE International Standard J3016, 2014). A vehicle technology diffusion model has been developed to model an evolutionary and a rather revolutionary scenario which are distinguished by different market entry dates and AV technology take rates. Differentiating by passenger car segment, we introduce autonomous vehicles among new vehicles from 2022 resp. 2025 onward assuming an s-shaped market-take-up until 2035.