Urban Transportation Scenarios in a LUCC Model: A Case Study in Bogota, Colombia

Abstract

In this chapter, we present a practical implementation of a LUCC simulation based on transport scenarios. The model, called the Bogota Land Development model or BoLD, was built on Metronamica to address information gaps in decision-making. Using BoLD we modeled and compared two types of transport infrastructure: a highway-based transport network and a suburban rail system. These transport scenarios were combined with options to expand the city into green areas currently protected as nature reserves. Customized geospatial analyses were developed for calculating accessibility distance decay factors (ADDF) based on a methodology developed in this research called Over-Time Spatial Decay Calculation (OSDC). Results of the scenarios are presented graphically in what we call a Mobility Circle, a key contribution of this research. Validation of the results obtained suggests that both OSDC and the Mobility Circle appear to enhance the information available to decision-makers when evaluating urban scenarios driven by transport projects. In any case, those working in this field should approach LUCC based primarily on changes in transport systems with caution, as they provide a narrow view of future scenarios without clearly considering important aspects such as changes in land demand.