Abstract
Immediately following the global financial crisis of 2007–2008, budget deficits rose from the operation of the automatic stabilisers and some mild discretionary actions to bolster demand in the face of the economic downturn. This was soon replaced by drives to reduce budget deficits and debt ratios even though unemployment continued to be high and output well below previous levels. The ‘debt scare’ behind fiscal consolidation is examined and found wanting on empirical and theoretical grounds. The nature and estimates of ‘the multiplier’ are examined and the consequences of the wide range of estimates considered. There has been a shift to the formulation of fiscal policy in terms of a balanced structural budget. This shift relies on discredited ideas, such as a well-defined and stable non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment, and brings back the notion that savings and investment necessarily balance at a full employment equilibrium.
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Figures in this paragraph have been calculated from OECD Economic Outlook 2016/2 Statistical Annexe.
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There were some special factors in a number of countries, which may have raised tax revenues in 2006/07 thereby reducing the recorded budget deficit s, including property market booms.
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Tom Coburn was Republican Senator for Oklahoma over the period 2005–2015.
- 6.
See Arestis (2015) for further discussions.
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Sawyer, M. (2017). Lessons on Fiscal Policy After the Global Financial Crisis. In: Arestis, P., Sawyer, M. (eds) Economic Policies since the Global Financial Crisis. International Papers in Political Economy. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-60459-6_2
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