Event-Based Model Simulating the Change in DDoS Attack Trends After P/DIME Events

  • Adam TseEmail author
  • Kathleen M. Carley
Conference paper
Part of the Lecture Notes in Computer Science book series (LNCS, volume 10354)


This paper describes the methods for creating an event-based simulation used to predict DDoS attacks against countries following international events. The model uses various parameters for an event and generates time series DDoS attack data for the two countries over one week. The simulation uses a weighted, tit-for-tat approach in determining retaliation. The model was evaluated using attack data of actual events provided by Arbor Networks consisting of a two-week interval plus a day, centered around the start of the events. The model was sufficient in predicting the change in frequency of DDoS attacks following hostile diplomatic events, but it was unsuccessful at simulating attacks following friendly, military, and economic events. Overall, the resulting simulation was a successful baseline for future work in the field.


DDoS Simulation Modeling Cyberwarfare Cyber-policy Cyber-attacks International relations 


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Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing AG 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Institute for Software ResearchCarnegie Mellon UniversityPittsburghUSA

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