Abstract
This paper describes the methods for creating an event-based simulation used to predict DDoS attacks against countries following international events. The model uses various parameters for an event and generates time series DDoS attack data for the two countries over one week. The simulation uses a weighted, tit-for-tat approach in determining retaliation. The model was evaluated using attack data of actual events provided by Arbor Networks consisting of a two-week interval plus a day, centered around the start of the events. The model was sufficient in predicting the change in frequency of DDoS attacks following hostile diplomatic events, but it was unsuccessful at simulating attacks following friendly, military, and economic events. Overall, the resulting simulation was a successful baseline for future work in the field.
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Tse, A., Carley, K.M. (2017). Event-Based Model Simulating the Change in DDoS Attack Trends After P/DIME Events. In: Lee, D., Lin, YR., Osgood, N., Thomson, R. (eds) Social, Cultural, and Behavioral Modeling. SBP-BRiMS 2017. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 10354. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-60240-0_15
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-60240-0_15
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