From Shrinkage to Regrowth: The Nexus Between Urban Dynamics, Land Use Change and Ecosystem Service Provision

Abstract

Urban shrinkage, commonly understood as population loss of an urban area, and post-shrinkage regrowth have become prominent pathways of urban development across Europe. While many cities, mostly in Eastern Europe, are still shrinking today, other cities that shrunk in the past now see new growth. Numerous cities have undergone this transformation from shrinkage towards new growth within only one or two decades – a relatively short time. Both shrinkage and regrowth have considerable impacts on urban land use, be it on densities or types of use. Both offer a variety of potentials and risks for sustainable use of urban land as well as for the provision of green spaces and urban ecosystem services (UES). On the one hand, there is the risk that new growth after shrinkage puts pressure on the qualities that emerged and/or were created in the time of shrinkage such as less density, more green areas, or spaces for experimentation and innovation, will be questioned in their existence and benefit. On the other hand, regrowth after shrinkage offers the great opportunity to make use of those qualities in order to build more sustainable regrowing cities and to ensure good provision of environmental qualities and ecosystem services for large segments of the population. Here, many trade-offs emerge, and many new challenges have to be addressed. Often, there is a complex setting of actors and interests that make it complicated to negotiate solutions.