Abstract
In recent years, with the acceleration of population aging, the development of population structure is an important factor that influences economy and social development of China. This paper studied the future trend of population in Sichuan of China by establishing a population development equation. Taken the statistical data of census in 2010 in Sichuan, some important factors, such as survival rate, fertility mode and gender ratio etc. are considered to estimate the population structure, especially the proportion of older people, in Sichuan. The model is utilized to predict the population aging trend and aging index in the case of different total fertility rate and to provide reference for the government to make corresponding social and economic decisions.
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Acknowledgements
This research is supported by the Scientific Research Foundation of CUIT (Grant No. KYTZ201425) and Center of System science and Enterprise Development Research (Grant No. Xq16C01).
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Hu, J. (2018). Analysis and Prediction of Population Aging Trend Based on Population Development Model. In: Xu, J., Gen, M., Hajiyev, A., Cooke, F. (eds) Proceedings of the Eleventh International Conference on Management Science and Engineering Management. ICMSEM 2017. Lecture Notes on Multidisciplinary Industrial Engineering. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-59280-0_27
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-59280-0_27
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