Pennsylvania Senate Race: Calculated Campaigns in a Toss-up State

Abstract

The Pennsylvania Senate match started with a bitter primary, featuring a candidate who almost won six years earlier, a party-anointed favorite, and a renegade small-town mayor. The general election pitted Pat Toomey (R) against Katie McGinty (D) and was the most expensive contest in history. Both candidates and outside groups engaged in an ad war that accounted for nearly 60% of all political advertising in the state. Both campaigns used a “two-Pennsylvania” strategy, recognizing the bifurcated electorate. Toomey waited until the last minute to announce he voted for Trump while McGinty was an unabashed Clinton supporter. Toomey won reelection with slightly less than 49% of the vote, which leaves open the question of whether McGinty would have won if the Libertarian had not been in the race.