Analytical Framework for a Systemic Analysis of Drivers and Dynamics of Historical Land-Use Changes: A Shift Toward Systems Thinking

Abstract

Drivers of land-use change processes include but are not limited to agricultural innovation and reforms, demography and policy changes, and external conservation trends. Research on land-use changes has concentrated on developing both spatially focused models and reductionist approaches. However, reductionist science has shown itself to be incapable of providing the complete and accurate information required to successfully address nature situations involving human values. This research proposes a shift towards “systems thinking” to capture the real motives behind land-use decision-making, in addition to understanding the interconnections between a given system’s elements and its dynamics in relation to the environment. The objective of this paper is to introduce an analytical framework that will assist in analysing land-use change dynamics, in addition to presenting a discussion as to why a paradigm shift towards systems thinking in land-use research is necessary. In addition, because changes occur not only spatially, but temporally, a historical approach is used to recognize this changing state. Land-use decisions are heavily influenced by drivers such as social constructions and needs, values and emotions, and the personal history of each decision-maker. Those drivers (internal to the human condition) are reflected in the individual landowner and land manager cognitive representations of reality. The framework guide the researcher in understanding individual incentives and motivations and to aggregate it at a collective level, by identifying which of these drivers contributes to the creation of a collective bond. Further efforts are required to understand all motives behind decision-making and the co-evolution of human and natural systems. To this end, the analysis of dynamics of space, time, and human choice play a crucial role.