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TXT-tool 4.385-1.1: Method for Prediction of Landslide Movements Based on Random Forests

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Landslide Dynamics: ISDR-ICL Landslide Interactive Teaching Tools

Abstract

Prediction of landslide movements with practical application for landslide risk mitigation is a challenge for scientists. This study presents a methodology for prediction of landslide movements using random forests, a machine learning algorithm based on regression trees. The prediction method was established based on a time series consisting of 2 years of data on landslide movement, groundwater level and precipitation gathered from the Kostanjek landslide monitoring system and nearby meteorological stations in Zagreb (Croatia). Because of complex relations between precipitations and groundwater levels, the process of landslide movement prediction is divided into two separate models: (1) model for prediction of groundwater levels from precipitation data; and (2) model for prediction of landslide movements from groundwater level data. In a groundwater level prediction model, 75 parameters were used as predictors, calculated from precipitation and evapotranspiration data. In the landslide movement prediction model, 10 parameters calculated from groundwater level data were used as predictors. Model validation was performed through the prediction of groundwater levels and prediction of landslide movements for the periods from 10 to 90 days. The validation results show the capability of the model to predict the evolution of daily displacements, from predicted variations of groundwater levels, for the period up to 30 days. Practical contributions of the developed method include the possibility of automated predictions, updated and improved on daily basis, which would be an important source of information for decisions related to crisis management in the case of risky landslide movements.

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Acknowledgements

The results presented herein have been obtained with the financial support from JST/JICA’s SATREP Program. This support is gratefully acknowledged. The authors would also like to thank the Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service for the meteorological data. The authors are grateful to Ž. Arbanas and anonymous reviewers for their valuable advice.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Mining, Geology and Petroleum Engineering, University of Zagreb, Pierottijeva 6, 10000, Zagreb, Croatia

    Martin Krkač, Sanja Bernat Gazibara & Snježana Mihalić Arbanas

  2. Intellomics Ltd, Trg Ivana Kukuljevića 4, 10000, Zagreb, Croatia

    Drago Špoljarić

Authors
  1. Martin Krkač
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  2. Drago Špoljarić
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  3. Sanja Bernat Gazibara
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  4. Snježana Mihalić Arbanas
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Martin Krkač .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. International Consortium on Landslides, Kyoto, Japan

    Kyoji Sassa

  2. Civil and Environmental Engineering, California State University, Fullerton, California, USA

    Binod Tiwari

  3. Department of Civil Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan

    Ko-Fei Liu

  4. GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand

    Mauri McSaveney

  5. Geodynamics Research Center—branch of JSC “Hydroproject Institute”, Moscow, Russia

    Alexander Strom

  6. Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Uji, Kyoto, Japan

    Hendy Setiawan

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Krkač, M., Špoljarić, D., Bernat Gazibara, S., Mihalić Arbanas, S. (2018). TXT-tool 4.385-1.1: Method for Prediction of Landslide Movements Based on Random Forests. In: Sassa, K., Tiwari, B., Liu, KF., McSaveney, M., Strom, A., Setiawan, H. (eds) Landslide Dynamics: ISDR-ICL Landslide Interactive Teaching Tools . Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-57777-7_35

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