US-China-Russia Triadic Tensions

Abstract

US-USSR-PRC relational dynamics comprised the first Cold War-era strategic triangle. In 1969–1971, convergent Sino-US security interests transformed intra-triangular interactions, supplanting the binary systemic core, thus modifying the system. Russia’s early post-Soviet self-absorption amidst transitional turbulence kept elites focused on the Slavic heartland. Economic recovery and power-stabilisation around the Kremlin restored Moscow’s self-image as a global-actor. Western angst over Russian activism in Europe, Central Asia, and the Middle-East followed NATO-imposed restraints, encouraging efforts to improve Russia’s position in the east. A reversal of Russo-Chinese power-balances, China’s energy needs, Russia’s quest for market diversification, financial and diplomatic support, and a shared perception of encirclement rooted in US identification of China and Russia as strategic threats backstopped Sino-Russian cooperation coalescing into a proto-alliance. Given structural divergences, this reversal of a covert anti-Soviet US-Chinese tacit-alliance late in the Cold War (Ali, US-China cold war collaboration, 1971–1989. Routledge, New York, 2005, pp. 66–188) triggering US-Japanese anxiety, warrants an explanation. This chapter seeks to provide it.