Abstract
Changing emission patterns across the globe are resulting in heterogeneous changes in tropospheric chemical composition and likely altering the long-range transport of air pollutants and their impact at receptor regions. In this study, we combine results from multi-decadal simulations with the WRF-CMAQ model with source-region sensitivity information derived with the Decoupled Direct Method (DDM) to examine trends in long-range transport contributions to background O3 concentrations at receptor regions.
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References
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Questioner: S. Aksoyoglu
Question: Was there any change in vegetation and then biogenic emissions between 1990 and 2010 represented in the model?
Answer: The land-use was kept constant during this period as there exists no dataset to consistently represent changes across all the land-use categories used in the model over the multi-decadal period examined here. Thus possible impacts of changes in vegetation were not reflected in the biogenic emission estimates. Biogenic emissions however did change due to changes in temperature and radiation during this period and seasonally to the land cover.
Questioner: S. Galmarini
Question: Can you briefly illustrate the advantages of scaling up the modeling efforts from a more detailed experience (e.g., from regional to global)? What are the advantages?
Answer: Our past attempts at linking regional and global scales models has met with mixed success, in that biases from the larger model often propagate to the regional scale and confound interpretation of results. The primary motivation for scaling up was to have consistency in process representations across all scales. Thus, one now has a consistent modeling framework (in terms of process biases/errors) to enable examination of the effects of long-range transport on regional pollution. Scaling up however did necessitate the inclusion of additional processes to accurately represent longer term processes (e.g., organic nitrate chemistry), new environments (marine emissions), and careful examination of 3-D transport.
Questioner: Kaj Mantzius Hansen
Question: The stratospheric contributions to surface O3 concentrations appear to be significant. Have you investigated the trends in this contribution over the simulated period?
Answer: Stratospheric contributions to surface and boundary layer O3 are not limited only to episodic and local deep intrusion events. Our results support the notion that some fraction of the O3 in the mid-lower troposphere originated in the stratosphere, and is gradually transported downwards through synoptic features and deep clouds and eventually entrained to the boundary layer. Thus O3 in air masses entering North America likely have both an inter-continental anthropogenic components and a stratospheric contribution. We use a potential-vorticity scaling to specify O3 at our model top (50 mb)—thus the modeled stratospheric contribution responds to changing dynamics over the two decade period but not say to any plausible effects associated with the recovery of the ozone hole. Trends in the stratospheric contribution is intriguing and should be investigated—unfortunately the current simulations do not allow for a detailed investigation of this nature.
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Mathur, R., Kang, D., Napelenok, S., Xing, J., Hogrefe, C. (2018). A Modeling Study of the Influence of Hemispheric Transport on Trends in O3 Distributions Over North America. In: Mensink, C., Kallos, G. (eds) Air Pollution Modeling and its Application XXV. ITM 2016. Springer Proceedings in Complexity. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-57645-9_2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-57645-9_2
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