Scenario Planning Toward Climate Adaptation: The Uruguayan Coast

Abstract

Climate change and variability, storm surges and sea level rise are a threat to coastal areas and their increase would trigger the current climate adaptation deficit. This chapter is aimed at explaining the use of participatory scenario planning (PSP) for thinking of “futures”—a “what if” learning exercise—and a way to adapt to climate threats. PSP mixes normative and participatory approaches to build alternative scenarios based on climate trends and scenarios which are analyzed by experts, managers and stakeholders through vulnerability reduction assessment workshops. Expert assessment and group discussion are carried out to assess the collective perception of climate threats, vulnerability, and the magnitude of changes, impacts, and alternative future pathways. A hypothetical PSP case study is presented based on experiences at coastal areas of Uruguay. PSP provides social legitimacy, “buy‐into the scenarios” and the adjustment of expectations to the institutional needs. The process itself creates capacity to move forward and must be reviewed periodically.