Abstract
A serious and ambitious implementation of the Paris Agreement on climate change of December 2015 requires rapid worldwide decarbonization implying a complete phase-out of the use of fossil fuels. Curiously, references to the role of international trade are entirely lacking in the text of the Paris Agreement. As trade liberalization is moving forward nonetheless and increasingly in regional or bilateral fora, this contribution looks at the role the mega-regional agreements play for the post-Paris decarbonization agenda. The analysis comprises both feasible risks and possible opportunities and takes into account the draft texts and negotiating mandates of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA).
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- 1.
UNFCCC (2015).
- 2.
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (signed 9 May 1992, entered into force 21 Mar 1994) 1771 UNTS 107.
- 3.
For a positive assessment from academia see Savaresi (2016) who, while admitting it is not perfect, qualifies the Agreement as a “fairly balanced compromise” and finds “much worth celebrating” about the PA.
- 4.
Gerstetter (2016), p. 67.
- 5.
UNFCCC, Draft Decision of the 21st Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC, Adoption of the Paris Agreement (12 Dec 2015) FCCC/CP/2015/L.9/Rev.1, para. 17.
- 6.
Obergassel et al. (2016), 42 et seq. The term decarbonization, as used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) denotes “the declining average carbon intensity of primary energy over time”. It is meant here in a broad sense, encompassing the whole economy and including the transport and heating sectors.
- 7.
Obergassel et al. (2016), p. 43.
- 8.
International Energy Agency (2015), p. 4.
- 9.
In the affirmative Gasser et al. (2015).
- 10.
See Sect. 2.
- 11.
See Sect. 3.
- 12.
Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (signed 10 Dec 1997, entered into force 16 Feb 2005) 2303 UNTS 148.
- 13.
Arias-Cañete (2016).
- 14.
European Commission (2015a), p. 2.
- 15.
On transport emissions see Cristea et al. (2013).
- 16.
Cottier et al. (2014), p. 1015.
- 17.
Edenhofer et al. (2016), p. 73.
- 18.
WTO (2016).
- 19.
See, e.g. Holzer (2014).
- 20.
For an overview see Cosbey and Mavroidis (2014).
- 21.
Cf. Tran (2010), p. 348.
- 22.
WTO, Canada—Certain Measures Affecting the Renewable Energy Appellate Body Report (6 May 2013) WT/DS412/AB/R, WT/DS426/AB/R; on a critical note Rubini (2014).
- 23.
For a discussion see Barthelemy and Peat (2015).
- 24.
Horlick (2013), p. 1. The fact that prices of renewable energy generation equipment have continuously fallen over the last decades must be regarded as a success story as it has helped to make renewable energy generation competitive with fossil fuels and less reliant on government subsidies.
- 25.
Horlick (2013), p. 2.
- 26.
For a recent contribution see Becker and Will (2016).
- 27.
For a recent academic contribution see Rimmer (2016).
- 28.
Stiglitz (2016).
- 29.
See, e.g., van Harten (2015).
- 30.
WTO (2016).
- 31.
See further below, Sect. 5.1.
- 32.
European Commission (2013a), p. 48.
- 33.
European Commission (2016), p. 185.
- 34.
European Commission (2016).
- 35.
Peters et al. (2011).
- 36.
European Commission (2013a), p. 49; cf. Pauwelyn (in this volume).
- 37.
European Commission (2013a), p. 49.
- 38.
UNFCCC, Submission of the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution by the United States of America (2015). http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/United%20States%20of%20America/1/U.S.%20Cover%20Note%20INDC%20and%20Accompanying%20Information.pdf. Accessed 8 June 2016.
- 39.
European Council (2014).
- 40.
UNFCCC, Submission of the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution by Canada (2015). http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/Canada/1/INDC%20-%20Canada%20-%20English.pdf. Accessed 26 Sept 2016.
- 41.
Stoler (2013).
- 42.
This is also acknowledged by the European Commission (2013a), p. 48.
- 43.
Cf. Tienhaara (2011), 606 et seq.
- 44.
- 45.
Porterfield and Gallagher (2015).
- 46.
For a discussion of this arbitration see International Institute for Sustainable Development (2016).
- 47.
International Institute for Sustainable Development (2016).
- 48.
Johnson et al. (2015).
- 49.
William Ralph Clayton, William Richard Clayton, Douglas Clayton, Daniel Clayton and Bilcon of Delaware Inc. v. Government of Canada, UNCITRAL, PCA Case No. 2009–04, Partial Award (3 Mar 2001).
- 50.
Johnson et al. (2015).
- 51.
Álvarez (2016), p. 18.
- 52.
For a criticism see Johnson et al. (2015), p. 2.
- 53.
Article 29.1 TPP incorporates Article XX GATT for several trade-related chapters, but not for the investment chapter.
- 54.
European Commission (2013b).
- 55.
European Commission (2013b).
- 56.
Cf. the discussion by Lester (2016).
- 57.
Cf. Holterhus (2016).
- 58.
European Commission (2013c), p. 2.
- 59.
Bull et al. (2015), p. 23.
- 60.
See Article 191 TFEU.
- 61.
EU Directive 2009/30/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 April 2009 amending Directive 98/70/EC as regards the specification of petrol and diesel fuels and introducing a mechanism to monitor and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, OJ 2009 L 140/88.
- 62.
Euractiv (2014).
- 63.
European Commission (2013d).
- 64.
van Renssen (2015).
- 65.
European Commission (2013d), p. 2.
- 66.
Section 3 (c) US Natural Gas Act; see also Natali et al. (2015), p. 2.
- 67.
Section 3(a) US Natural Gas Act.
- 68.
European Commission (2013d), p. 2.
- 69.
European Commission (2013d), p. 2.
- 70.
European Commission (2013d), p. 2.
- 71.
Julien (2015).
- 72.
WTO, Doha Ministerial Declaration (adopted on 14 Nov 2001). https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/minist_e/min01_e/mindecl_e.htm. Accessed 8 June 2016.
- 73.
Frey (2016), 458 et seq.
- 74.
Cosbey (2014).
- 75.
European Commission (2015b).
- 76.
Sugathan and Brewer (2012).
- 77.
For a state of play see APEC (2016).
- 78.
For the EGA see Cosbey (2014).
- 79.
For an overview over these barriers see Frey (2016).
- 80.
Cf. Sugathan (2015).
- 81.
Leal-Arcas (2015), p. 491.
- 82.
International Trade Center (2015).
- 83.
These are Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore and the US.
- 84.
Rai and Payosova (2015).
- 85.
Frey (2015), p. 278.
- 86.
van Harten (2015).
- 87.
Cf., e.g., Occidental Petroleum Corporation and Occidental Exploration and Production Company v. Republic of Ecuador, ICSID Case No. ARB/06/11, Award (5 Oct 2012) on expropriation of a foreign investor and the pending dispute Lone Pine Resources Inc. v. Canada, ICSID Case No. UNCT/15/2 on fair and equitable treatment, award not yet issued.
- 88.
Financial Times (2016).
- 89.
On the Spanish case see Dromgool and Ybarra (2016).
- 90.
Dromgool and Ybarra (2016).
- 91.
AES Solar and others v. Spain, UNCITRAL, pending.
- 92.
For further details see Dromgool and Ybarra (2016).
- 93.
Cf. Global Carbon Atlas (2013).
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Frey, C. (2017). The Role of Mega-Regionals in the Decarbonization of the Economy. In: Rensmann, T. (eds) Mega-Regional Trade Agreements. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-56663-4_11
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