Abstract
Several long-term projections at the national level have been conducted for Swedish forests in recent decades using data from the National Forest Inventory (NFI). The Swedish NFI started in 1923. Over time, the inventory design has been altered including a major change prior to the third NFI starting in 1953 when circular plots arranged along the sides of rectangular tracts replaced the previous linear transects. All plots were temporary until 1983–1987 when 30,000 permanent plots were established. Subsequently, these plots have been measured at 5-year intervals. In addition approximately 1500 temporary plots are measured each year. A stratified sampling design is used that covers all land classes and water. Approximately half the plots are located in productive forest. NFI data has been and is still used for long-term projections at the regional and national levels. Each plot is used as a projection unit, and the data have been used to construct models for forest development. The development on the plots is simulated using a long-term simulator for a specified period of time, and the plot condition is then assumed to reflect the condition for the area represented by the plot. In recent decades the HUGIN-simulator has been used for long-term forest projections in Sweden. HUGIN includes features such as allowing the user to control forest management at different developmental stages, to set aside protected areas, and to increase or decrease harvest levels in cleanings and final fellings. HUGIN includes models for features and attributes such as growth, mortality, ingrowth, damages and biomass. The last long-term projection was finished in 2008. Outcomes for several different “what-if” scenarios were obtained: Reference (business-as-usual), Production (improved management), Protection (increased protected area) and Production+Protection (combined). The effects of climate change were included in all scenarios. Based on the Reference scenario, standing volume will increase from 3108 million m3 (including bark and top) to 4527 million m3 in 2110, and the harvest will increase from 90 million m3 to 135 million m3 in 2110. At present, a new long-term projection project has started for which the new simulator (RegWise) is used instead of the HUGIN-simulator.
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Lundström, A., Wikberg, PE. (2017). Sweden. In: Barreiro, S., Schelhaas, MJ., McRoberts, R., Kändler, G. (eds) Forest Inventory-based Projection Systems for Wood and Biomass Availability. Managing Forest Ecosystems, vol 29. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-56201-8_25
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-56201-8_25
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