Lessons Learned

Abstract

Military doctrine assumes information and information technology to be a key factor in decisions at all levels of war. It suggests that one should expect military operations to go hand in hand with second mover advantages. The analyses presented in this thesis suggest, though, that the general assumption that every strategy anticipating the enemy’s intentions would necessarily result in an advantage is not justified. What is more, we even find examples in actual conflicts, where there is an incentive to do the opposite, namely reveal one’s strategies to the enemy. Scenarios from Operation Enduring Freedom, e.g., show that, contrary to intuition, COIN forces’ operations would have been able to do better by revealing their CAS capabilities in advance of every operation to take place, and not going ahead with that particular operation in the first place, unless they possess sufficient capabilities.