The Realigning Elections: 2000 and 2012

Abstract

In “critical” or “realigning elections ,” the ruling party is defeated and there are significant changes in the electoral cleavages . These are the characteristics of the elections of 2000 and 2012. The former marked the end of the more than 70-year-old PRI regime and the latter its return to power. Now, the elections in 2000 were preceded by reforms that guaranteed the presence of autonomous institutions in the conduct of the electoral process . These reforms allowed the opposition to win control over local governments, also ending the PRI congressional majority by 1997. Both the PAN and the PRD became more competitive parties through securing of public resources in order to finance their campaigns and activities. The chapter shows that even though political commentators and experts anticipated the formation of a polarized pluralist system, or one with an increasing fragmentation, what happened in 2000 was a process of realignment in favor of the PAN. This is explained by changes in party identification that occurred during the 6 years of Zedillo’s presidency. Finally, the elections in 2012 were marked with the widespread “war on drugs” that Calderón initiated and sustained during his sexenio. Here, the chapter analyzes the realignments that occurred in 2012 through a statistical analysis of the profile of the voters for each party, finding that retrospective considerations of the economy, party identification, and ideology were strong indicators of people’s vote.