Abstract
The April–July mean temperature reconstruction 1256–1431 is the earliest temperature reconstruction using documentary data and so far the only summer temperature reconstruction for the British Isles. It is based on the calibration-verification approach. The medieval grain harvest dates are complemented by the modern comparison series from Langham, which is used to establish the relationship between grain harvest date and growing season temperature with the help of a simple regression. The East Anglian medieval harvest date series are grouped in regional clusters; the most complete series comes from northwest Norfolk and shares climatic and soil conditions with the modern comparison series. In years for which no data is available in the northwest region the data from other clusters is used and regressed to the level of the northwest group. For 147 years between 1256 and 1431 a temperature reconstruction is possible, the data are dense after 1290. The reconstructed temperatures are well correlated with available temperature indices from England and the Low Countries. The reconstruction shows the shift from the Medieval Climate Optimum towards the Little Ice Age, temperatures were falling over the Late Middle Ages. The drop in growing season temperatures was not continuous, but warmer and colder phases interchanged, as there were also times of high and low interannual variability. In England cold and highly variable phases would have been particularly difficult for agriculture; the cold periods occurred in the mid-1290s, from c.1313–1323, in the late 1340s, the mid-1360s to the mid-1370s, the 1380s, the first decade of the fifteenth century and the late 1420s, and the year to year variability was very high in 1315–1335 and 1360–1375.
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Notes
- 1.
Manley, The mean temperature of central England, 1698–1952, 242–261, and idem, Central England temperatures: monthly means 1659–1973.
- 2.
Brázdil et al., European climate of the past 500 years. New challenges, 15–18.
- 3.
Soils of England and Wales: Sheet 4 Eastern England, the fields of Sedgeford-Gnatingdon are dominated by shallow well drained calcareous sandy and coarse loamy soils over chalk or chalk rubble belonging to the soil association of Newmarket 2, and to a small extent include deep well drained coarse loamy, coarse loamy over clayey and sandy soils (Barrow). At Langham similar soils are involved (Newmarket 1 and 2, Barrow). The soils at Hindringham and Hindolveston are mainly deep loamy with slowly permeable sub-soils prone to slight seasonal waterlogging (Burlingham 1 and 3), or slowly permeable seasonally waterlogged fine loamy over clayey soils (Beccles 1 and 2).
- 4.
According to the Ordnance Survey: 132 North West Norfolk and 133 North East Norfolk, Langham and fields are at 30-40 m, the Northwest region at 30-50 m, Hindringham at 50-80 m and Hindolveston at 50-70 m.
- 5.
MAFF, Sheet 125 Fakenham, 4–5 and MAFF, Sheet 124 King’s Lynn, 4.
- 6.
This problem was already described in 1796 by Kent, General view of the agriculture of the county of Norfolk, 10. It is a Norfolk-wide phenomenon, see for example MAFF, Sheet 124 King’s Lynn, 4 or MAFF, Sheet 126 Norwich, 5.
- 7.
Ogilvie, Farmer, Documenting the medieval climate, 124–128. The indices set by Ogilvie and Farmer for temperature between 1256 and 1431 are sparse and mostly relate to winter.
- 8.
van Engelen et al., A millennium of weather, winds and water in the Low Countries.
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Lamb, Climate. Past, present and future, vol. 2.
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Ogilvie, Farmer, Documenting the medieval climate, 127.
- 11.
Titow, Le climat à travers les rôles de comptabilité, 338. Most references for the winter 1423–1424 are to rainfall of long continuation and subsequent flooding, so the winter was very wet. Overton in Hampshire, however, mentions tempests of snow and rain which continued for a long time, so the winter temperatures were probably below average.
- 12.
Pfister et al., Winter severity in Europe, 104.
- 13.
- 14.
Ogilvie, Farmer, Documenting the medieval climate, 127.
- 15.
MAFF, Sheet 124 King’s Lynn, 4.
- 16.
Pfister et al., Winter severity in Europe, 104.
- 17.
Ogilvie, Farmer, Documenting the medieval climate, 127–128.
- 18.
Pfister, Variations in the spring-summer climate, 69.
- 19.
The oldest weather journal is also from England and covers the period of August 1269 to February 1270, Long, The oldest European weather diary?, 233–234. The references were written in the margin of an astronomical calendar for 1269 and might have been recorded by Roger Bacon. Another English weather diary, again in the form of notes taken on the margin of an astronomical calendar, survives for October to December 1439, Mortimer, William Merle’s weather diary, 42.
- 20.
Meaden, Merle’s weather diary and its motivation, 211, Mortimer, William Merle’s weather diary, 42–43.
- 21.
Mortimer, William Merle’s weather diary, 42–43. Driby is in the Lindsey district and within five miles of the northeast coast.
- 22.
Britton, Meteorological chronology, 138–140.
- 23.
Mortimer, William Merle’s weather diary, 44–45.
- 24.
Campbell, Nature as historical protagonist, 299.
- 25.
Campbell, Nature as historical protagonist, 299.
- 26.
The Chronicle of London from 1089 [sic] to 1483, 56. A similar section is found in William Gregory’s Chronicle of London, 80. The low prices of goods are also noted in the Brut, 292. A shorter version is contained in Higden, Polychronicon, vol. 8, 334 for spring 1339, but for the grain price with regard to the harvest 1338. The Polychronicon is the oldest text of the chronicles mentioned here.
- 27.
Merle, Consideraciones temperiei pro 7 annis, Titow, Evidence of weather, 397. This winter is also described as being long.
- 28.
Mortimer, William Merle’s weather diary, 43. Further north in Staffordshire, the summer was wet, see Lynam (ed.), Croxden Chronicle, x. This description is obviously referring to the weather in late May and early June.
- 29.
Campbell, Great transition, 270–271.
- 30.
Murimuth, Continuatio Chronicarum, 88–89. Weather conditions are observed in detail in Merle, Consideraciones temperiei pro 7 annis, they entirely fit the description of Murimuth.
- 31.
Knighton, Chronicon, vol. 2, 36–37. Creighton, Epidemics in Britain, 59, considered the possibility of an outbreak of ergotism, but the harvest failure of winter grain in 1339 makes this unlikely. The editor of Knighton speculates about diphtheria, a throat infection, which could explain the barking voices, see Knighton, op. cit., 37.
- 32.
Even the Pipe Roll of the Bishopric of Winchester, normally a very informative source for meteorological conditions, hardly records any dry weather in 1341. Only one manor refers to it, another mentions ‘waters in summer’, Titow, Evidence on weather, 398.
- 33.
Campbell, Physical shocks, 25, Titow, Evidence on weather, 398.
- 34.
Brandon, Late medieval weather in Sussex, 3, Titow, Evidence on weather, 398. Mortimer, William Merle’s weather diary, 45 considers Merle’s diary, which is reporting generally wet conditions, and the manorial accounts of the Winchester estates and from Sussex, which are recording some dry weather for the growing season, as incompatible for 1342. However, April and May were considered as part of summer by the medieval agriculturalist, especially if the weather was fine, hence the reported dry spells in the accounts can refer to a dry period in April and May.
- 35.
Titow, Evidence on weather, 398.
- 36.
Titow, Evidence on weather, 398–399, Brandon, Late medieval weather in Sussex, 3.
- 37.
Brázdil, Kotyza, History of weather and climate (1000–1500), 168. Rohr, Extreme Naturereignisse im Ostalpenraum, 226–228.
- 38.
Kiss, Floods and weather in 1342 and 1343 in the Carpathian Basin.
- 39.
Lawrence, The earliest known journal of the weather, 498–499, compared the average monthly frequencies of rain days 1337–1343 with those for 1901–1930 and concludes that for May to October the two periods are comparable, November and December 1337–1343 are average or slightly below the average in 1901–1930, January to April are also below average.
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Pribyl K, Cornes RC, Pfister C (2012) Reconstructing medieval April-July mean temperatures in East Anglia, 1256-1431. Clim Chang:393–412
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Pribyl, K. (2017). A Reconstruction of Medieval April–July Temperatures for East Anglia. In: Farming, Famine and Plague. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-55953-7_5
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