Global LNG Market Outlook and Repercussions for Europe

Abstract

Europe plays the role of a shock absorber in global LNG markets. Its LNG imports depend on both the state of global LNG markets and the balance between Europe’s gas demand, production and pipeline imports. The respective volumes of pipeline gas and LNG imports are determined by total import needs, contractual commitments, the respective price of the different supply sources and supply developments in Europe’s pipeline suppliers. Geopolitics also plays an important role, as Europe is trying to diversify away from Russian pipeline gas. Looking forward, there could be a wide range for estimates of LNG imports. But there will likely be limits on how much LNG can be absorbed, particularly if large volumes of surplus LNG are stranded at low prices. Pipeline suppliers, notably Russia , are unlikely to see LNG reducing their market share without any reaction. Large volumes of stranded cheap LNG may also have unexpected consequences for the period beyond 2020, where new LNG supply will be required.