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Classification Models as Tools of Bankruptcy Prediction—Polish Experience

  • Józef PociechaEmail author
  • Barbara Pawełek
  • Mateusz Baryła
  • Sabina Augustyn
Conference paper
Part of the Studies in Classification, Data Analysis, and Knowledge Organization book series (STUDIES CLASS)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to present the results of extensive empirical research conducted in Poland on the capability of the bankruptcy prediction models most commonly used in practice to provide a correct classification. A main dataset and its variants, forming the basis for the conducted studies, were described. A comparative analysis of the most frequent bankruptcy prediction models was performed, based on the example of manufacturing companies in Poland. Empirical and theoretical distributions of financial ratios which are diagnostic variables in the presented models were examined. In summary, the conclusions were formulated allowing us to provide an answer to four basic questions raised in the introduction to the paper.

Keywords

Bankruptcy prediction Classification models Ability of proper classification Sampling methods Distributions of financial ratios 

Notes

Acknowledgements

The publication was financed from the funds granted to the Faculty of Management at Cracow University of Economics, within the framework of the subsidy for the maintenance of research potential.

References

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    Altman, E.I., Hotchkiss, E.: Corporate Financial Distress and Bankruptcy. Wiley, Inc. (2005)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
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    Baryła M., Pawełek B., Pociecha J.: Selection of Balanced Structure Samples in Corporate Bankruptcy Prediction. In: Wilhelm, A.F.X., Kestler,H.A. (eds.) Analysis of Large and Complex Data, Springer, pp. 345–355 (2016)Google Scholar
  3. 3.
    Bellovary, J., Giacomino, D., Akers, M.: A review of bankruptcy prediction studies: 1930 to present. J. Financial Educ. 33, 1–42 (2007)Google Scholar
  4. 4.
    McKee, T.E.: Developing a bankruptcy prediction model via rough sets theory. Int. J. Intell. Syst. Acc. Fin. Manag. 9(3), 159–173 (2000)CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing AG 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  • Józef Pociecha
    • 1
    Email author
  • Barbara Pawełek
    • 1
  • Mateusz Baryła
    • 1
  • Sabina Augustyn
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of StatisticsCracow University of EconomicsCracowPoland

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