Technology Forecasting: Case of RFID Technology

Neethirajan, Aarthi; Maheshwari, Priti; Talla, Rajasree; Goyal, Shreya; Kim, Jisun; Daim, Tugrul

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-54537-0_9

Aarthi Neethirajan⁶,
Priti Maheshwari⁶,
Rajasree Talla⁶,
Shreya Goyal⁶,
Jisun Kim⁶ &
…
Tugrul Daim⁶

Part of the book series: Science, Technology and Innovation Studies ((STAIS))

1413 Accesses

Abstract

Technology in Healthcare sector is undergoing a fast growth compared other sectors due to the opportunity for improvement. Among the few emerging technologies implemented in hospitals Radio frequency identification (RFID) is considered to be a prominent technology. Even though RFID has been applied successfully in various sectors like retail, manufacturing etc., the adoption pattern in hospitals differs because of factors like hospital application, risk, privacy and security. This chapter’s objective is to determine the adoption pattern of RFID in Healthcare considering such factors. The objective has achieved by using technology forecasting methods. The first part of the chapter helps understanding the application of RFID in hospitals and provides insight into technology forecasting methods. Second part of the chapter explains the execution of the methods with analysis and results derived considering RFID application in hospitals. In general this chapter provides an insight towards application of RFID technology in hospitals and opens up potential options which require further research to improve application of similar technologies in healthcare.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Department of Engineering and Technology, Portland State University, Portland, OR, USA
Aarthi Neethirajan, Priti Maheshwari, Rajasree Talla, Shreya Goyal, Jisun Kim & Tugrul Daim

Authors

Aarthi Neethirajan
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Priti Maheshwari
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Rajasree Talla
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Shreya Goyal
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Jisun Kim
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Tugrul Daim
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Tugrul Daim .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Department of Engineering and Technology, Portland State University, Portland, Oregon, USA
Tugrul Daim
Department of Engineering and Technology, Portland State University, Portland, Oregon, USA
Jisun Kim
Department of Engineering and Technology, Portland State University, Portland, Oregon, USA
Kenny Phan

Appendices

Appendix 1: Cumulative and Non-cumulative Patent Count for RFID and Barcode

Barcode patent count			RFID patent count
Year	Non-cumulative count	Cumulative count	Year	Non-cumulative count	Cumulative count
1975	1	1	1995	5	5
1976	1	2	1996	1	6
1977	1	3	1997	3	9
1978	1	4	1998	12	21
1979	1	5	1999	13	34
1980	1	6	2000	29	63
1981	1	7	2001	47	110
1982	1	8	2002	98	208
1983	1	9	2003	70	278
1984	1	10	2004	135	413
1985	1	11	2005	209	622
1986	4	15	2006	317	939
1987	3	18	2007	228	1167
1988	5	23	2008	157	1324
1989	3	26	2009	89	1413
1990	5	31	2010	51	1464
1991	10	41	2011	6	1470
1992	11	52
1993	12	64
1994	9	73
1995	33	106
1996	4	149
1997	32	181
1998	56	237
1999	56	293
2000	72	365
2001	112	477
2002	155	632
2003	111	743
2004	146	889
2005	142	1031
2006	181	1212
2007	159	1371
2008	117	1488
2009	58	1546
2010	37	1583
2011	4	1587

Appendix 2: Gompertz Curve Analysis

Patents filed for barcode in US
Year	NP	CNP	%	L/y	ln(ln(L/y))	kt	″e^kt	″b*e^kt	″−be^(kt)		Predicted y
1975	1	1	0.0625	1600	1.998469922	−278.107	1.6577E-121	19.20009	−19.2000916	4.58676E-09	4.58676E-07
1976	1	2	0.125	800	1.899808128	−278.248	1.44E-121	16.67818	−16.6781787	5.71162E-08	5.71162E-06
1977	1	3	0.1875	533.3333333	1.837234083	−278.389	1.2508E-121	14.48752	−14.4875166	5.10683E-07	5.10683E-05
1978	1	4	0.25	400	1.790335881	−278.53	1.0865E-121	12.5846	−12.5845957	3.42436E-06	0.000342436
1979	1	5	0.3125	320	1.75238105	−278.671	9.4383E-122	10.93162	−10.9316216	1.78837E-05	0.001788369
1980	1	6	0.375	266.6666667	1.720263367	−278.811	8.1986E-122	9.495764	−9.49576402	7.51696E-05	0.007516957
1981	1	7	0.4375	228.5714286	1.692279547	−278.952	7.1217E-122	8.248505	−8.24850488	0.000261649	0.026164946
1982	1	8	0.5	200	1.667389292	−279.093	6.1863E-122	7.165072	−7.16507199	0.000773123	0.077312332
1983	1	9	0.5625	177.7777778	1.644908204	−279.234	5.3737E-122	6.223947	−6.22394693	0.001981409	0.198140928
1984	1	10	0.625	160	1.624360774	−279.375	4.6679E-122	5.406438	−5.40643771	0.004487598	0.448759791
1985	1	11	0.6875	145.4545455	1.605402508	−279.515	4.0548E-122	4.696308	−4.6963075	0.009128923	0.912892345
1986	4	15	0.9375	106.6666667	1.541096694	−279.656	3.5222E-122	4.079452	−4.0794522	0.01691673	1.691673016
1987	3	18	1.125	88.88888889	1.501270606	−279.797	3.0595E-122	3.54362	−3.54362022	0.028908482	2.89084824
1988	5	23	1.4375	69.56521739	1.445097252	−279.938	2.6577E-122	3.078169	−3.07816924	0.046043474	4.604347426
1989	3	26	1.625	61.53846154	1.415771211	−280.079	2.3086E-122	2.673855	−2.67385478	0.068985787	6.898578733
1990	5	31	1.9375	51.61290323	1.372137551	−280.22	2.0054E-122	2.322647	−2.32264662	0.098013837	9.801383687
1991	10	41	2.5625	39.02439024	1.298606439	−280.36	1.742E-122	2.017569	−2.0175693	0.132978303	13.29783029
1992	11	52	3.25	30.76923077	1.231543765	−280.501	1.5132E-122	1.752564	−1.75256358	0.17332903	17.33290298
1993	12	64	4	25	1.169032176	−280.642	1.3144E-122	1.522366	−1.52236611	0.218195003	21.81950033
1994	9	73	4.5625	21.91780822	1.12729675	−280.783	1.1418E-122	1.322405	−1.32240484	0.266493657	26.64936574
1995	33	106	6.625	15.09433962	0.998541393	−280.924	9.9179E-123	1.148708	−1.14870828	0.31704604	31.704604
1996	43	149	9.3125	10.73825503	0.864497356	−281.064	8.6152E-123	0.997827	−0.99782659	0.368679863	36.86798628
1997	32	181	11.3125	8.839779006	0.778986231	−281.205	7.4836E-123	0.866763	−0.86676306	0.420309866	42.03098658
1998	56	237	14.8125	6.751054852	0.646945516	−281.346	6.50O6E-123	0.752915	−0.7529146	0.470991798	47.09917976
1999	56	293	18.3125	5.460750853	0.529207418	−281.487	5.6468E-123	0.65402	−0.65402002	0.519951356	51.9951356
2000	72	365	22.8125	4.383561644	0.390596147	−281.628	4.9051E-123	0.568115	−0.56811514	0.56659238	56.65923798
2001	112	477	29.8125	3.354297694	0.190820684	−281.769	4.2608E-123	0.493494	−0.49349378	0.610489745	61.04897449
2002	155	632	39.5	2.53164557	−0.073787009	−281.909	3.7011E-123	0.428674	−0.42867387	0.651372328	65.13723285
2003	111	743	46.4375	2.153432032	−0.265186521	−282.05	3.215E-123	0.372368	−0.37236798	0.689100619	68.91006191
2004	146	889	55.5625	1.799775028	−0.531603883	−282.191	2.7927E-123	0.323458	−0.32345782	0.723642481	72.36424813
2005	142	1031	64.4375	1.551891368	−0.822175756	−282.332	2.4259E-123	0.280972	−0.28097196	0.755049509	75.5049509
2006	181	1212	75.75	1.320132013	−1.281099589	−282.473	2.1073E-123	0.244067	−0.24406657	0.783435479	78.34354787
2007	159	1371	85.6875	1.167031364	−1.867799213	−282.613	1.8305E-123	0.212009	−0.21200867	0.808957684	80.89576839
2008	117	1488	93	1.075268817	−2.623194119	−282.754	1.59E-123	0.184162	−0.18416154	0.831801422	83.18014217
2009	58	1546	96.625	1.034928849	−3.371657636	−282.895	1.3812E-123	0.159972	−0.15997211	0.852167558	85.21675577
2010	37	1583	98.9375	1.010739103	−4.539209394	−283.036	1.1998E-123	0.13896	−0.13895993	0.870262899	87.02628985
2011	4	1587	99.1875	1.008191556	−4.80873323	−283.177	1.0422E-123	0.120708	−0.12070768	0.886293001	88.62930008
2012			0			−283.317	9.0529E-124	0.104853	−0.10485285	0.900457016	90.04570163
2013	1587		0			−283.458	7.8638E-124	0.091081	−0.09108053	0.912944187	91.29441871
2014	1600		0			−283.599	6.8309E-124	0.079117	−0.07911719	0.923931638	92.39316383
2015			0			−283.74	5.9337E-124	0.068725	−0.06872523	0.933583166	93.35831655
2016			0			−283.881	5.1543E-124	0.059698	−0.05969824	0.942048764	94.20487638
2017			0			−284.022	4.4773E-124	0.051857	−0.05185694	0.949464692	94.9464692
2018			0			−284.162	3.8892E-124	0.045046	−0.04504558	0.95595391	95.59539098
2019			0			−284.303	3.3784E-124	0.039129	−0.03912889	0.96162676	96.16267602
2020			0			−284.444	2.9346E-124	0.033989	−0.03398935	0.966581802	96.65818021
2021			0			−284.585	2.5492E-124	0.029525	−0.02952488	0.970906721	97.09067215
2022			0			−284.726	2.2143E-124	0.025647	−0.02564682	0.97467927	97.46792698
2023			0			−284.866	1.9235E-124	0.022278	−0.02227813	0.977968193	97.79681925
2024			0			−285.007	1.6708E-124	0.019352	−0.01935192	0.980834124	98.08341244
2025			0			−285.148	1.4514E-124	0.01681	−0.01681007	0.983330434	98.33304345
2026			0			−285.289	1.2607E-124	0.014602	−0.01460208	0.985504012	98.55040125
2027			0			−285.43	1.0951E-124	0.012684	−0.01268411	0.987395992	98.73959922
2028			0			−285.57	9.5129E-125	0.011018	−0.01101807	0.98904241	98.90424099
L = 100
100% penetration = 1600
					100
″k =			−0.140813849
″ln(b)			281.0622663	t =	−1995.984549
″b			″−b		1996
1.158E+122			−1.1582E+122

Patents filed for RFID in hospitals in US
Year	NP RFID	CNP	%	Diff	l/y	ln(ln(L/y))	kt	e^kt	−b*e^(kt)		Predicted y
1995	5	5	0.3125	0	320	1.752381	−580.388414	8.72E-253	−10.9937	1.68081E-05	0.001680808	k =	−0.290921511
1996	1	6	0.375	0.0625	266.6667	1.720263	−580.679336	6.5188E-253	−8.21857	0.0002696	0.026959991	−ln(b)	582.7857321
1997	3	9	0.5625	0.1875	177.7778	1.644908	−580.970257	4.8733E-253	−6.14399	0.002146336	0.214633559	b=	1.2607E+253
1998	12	21	1.3125	0.75	76.19048	1.466315	−581.261179	3.6432E-253	−4.59309	0.010121516	1.012151637	−b =	−1.2607E+253
1999	13	34	2.125	0.8125	47.05882	1.348436	−581.5521	2.7235E-253	−3.43368	0.032268053	3.226805274	t =	−2003.240429
2000	29	63	3.9375	1.8125	25.39683	1.173913	−581.843022	2.036E-253	−2.56693	0.076770923	7.677092276		2003
2001	47	110	6.875	2.9375	14.54545	0.984801	−582.133943	1.5221E-253	−1.91897	0.146757968	14.67579682
2002	98	208	13	6.125	7.692308	0.713058	−582.424865	1.1379E-253	−1.43457	0.238217026	23.82170261
2003	70	278	17.375	4.375	5.755396	0.559695	−582.715786	8.5065E-254	−1.07245	0.342169144	34.21691442
2004	135	413	25.8125	8.4375	3.874092	0.303293	−583.006708	6.3592E-254	−0.80174	0.448549524	44.85495242
2005	209	622	38.875	13.0625	2.572347	−0.05676	−583.297629	4.754E-254	−0.59936	0.549164412	54.91644121
2006	317	939	58.6875	19.8125	1.70394	−0.62934	−583.588551	3.554E-254	−0.44806	0.638863652	63.88636517
2007	228	1167	72.9375	14.25	1.371037	−1.15338	−583.879472	2.6569E-254	−0.33496	0.715365754	71.53657542
2008	157	1324	82.75	9.8125	1.208459	−1.66418	−584.170394	1.9862E-254	−0.25041	0.778482713	77.84827127
2009	89	1413	88.3125	5.5625	1.132343	−2.08515	−584.461315	1.4848E-254	−0.1872	0.82927872	82.92787204
2010	51	1464	91.5	3.1875	1.092896	−2.42102	−584.752237	1.11E-254	−0.13995	0.869405924	86.94059237
2011	6	1470	91.875	0.375	1.088435	−2.46815	−585.043158	8.2982E-255	−0.10462	0.900667249	90.0667249
2012			0				−585.33408	6.2035E-255	−0.07821	0.924769481	92.47694812
2013			0				−585.625001	4.6376E-255	−0.05847	0.943208069	94.32080691
2014			0				−585.915923	3.467E-255	−0.04371	0.957232034	95.72320338
2015			0				−586.206844	2.5918E-255	−0.03268	0.967852026	96.78520258
2016			0				−586.497766	1.9376E-255	−0.02443	0.975868153	97.58681525
2017			0				−586.788687	1.4485E-255	−0.01826	0.981904142	98.19041422
2018			0				−587.079609	1.0828E-255	−0.01365	0.986440868	98.6440868
2019			0				−587.37053	8.0951E-256	−0.01021	0.989846095	98.98460948
2020			0				−587.661452	6.0517E-256	−0.00763	0.992399431	99.23994314
2021			0				−587.952373	4.5241E-256	−0.0057	0.994312542	99.43125418
2022			0				−588.243295	3.3821E-256	−0.00426	0.995745143	99.57451428
2023			0				−588.534216	2.5284E-256	−0.00319	0.996817467	99.68174667
2024			0				−588.825138	1.8901E-256	−0.00238	0.997619863	99.76198628
2025			0				−589.116059	1.413E-256	−0.00178	0.998220135	99.82201354
2026			0				−589.406981	1.0563E-256	−0.00133	0.99866912	99.86691198
2027			0				−589.697902	7.8969E-257	−0.001	0.999004901	99.90049009
2028			0				−589.988824	5.9035E-257	−0.00074	0.999255996	99.92559959
2029			0				−590.279745	4.4133E-257	−0.00056	0.999443749	99.94437494
2030			0				−590.570667	3.2993E-257	−0.00042	0.999584132	99.95841321
2031			0				−590.861589	2.4665E-257	−0.00031	0.999689092	99.96890915
2032			0				−591.15251	1.8439E-257	−0.00023	0.999767564	99.97675637
2033			0				−591.443432	1.3784E-257	−0.00017	0.999826231	99.98262315
2034			0				−591.734353	1.0305E-257	−0.00013	0.999870092	99.98700922
2035			0				−592.025275	7.7035E-258	−9.7E-05	0.999902883	99.99028827
2036			0				−592.316196	5.759E-258	−7.3E-05	0.999927397	99.99273967
2037			0				−592.607118	4.3053E-258	−5.4E-05	0.999945723	99.99457231
2038			0				−592.898039	3.2185E-258	−4.1E-05	0.999959424	99.99594237
2039			0				−593.188961	2.4061E-258	−3E-05	0.999969666	99.99696661
2040			0				−593.479882	1.7987E-258	−2.3E-05	0.999977323	99.9977323
2041			0				−593.770804	1.3447E-258	−1.7E-05	0.999983047	99.99830472
2042			0				−594.061725	1.0052E-258	−1.3E-05	0.999987327	99.99873265
2043			0				−594.352647	7.5149E-259	−9.5E-06	0.999990526	99.99905256
2044			0				−594.643568	5.618E-259	−7.1E-06	0.999992917	99.99929172
2045			0				−594.93449	4.1999E-259	−5.3E-06	0.999994705	99.99947051
2046			0				−595.225411	3.1397E-259	−4E-06	0.999996042	99.99960416
2047			0				−595.516333	2.3472E-259	−3E-06	0.999997041	99.99970408
2048			0				−595.807254	1.7547E-259	−2.2E-06	0.999997788	99.99977878

Inflexion Point Calculations

The inflection point occurs at t = (ln b)/k, when y = L/e.

Appendix 3: AHP Model Analysis

1.1 Sample Survey Form

1.2 PCM Results

Appendix 4: Bass Diffusion Model

Product (Period of analysis)	m	p	q	Criteria/numerical score		Weighted
				Market structure Wa = 0.51	Product structure Wb = 0.49	Numerical score
RFID in retail (1995–2006)	119,849	0.055	0.378	4	9	0.35833333
EHR (2001–2010)	225,000	0.1	0.06	8	2	0.21111111
Pulse electro magnetic therapy (1993–2008)	28,829.1	0.121	0.281	6	7	0.37222222
WA Score	5754	0.08586	0.2527			0.94166667

t years	N(t)	N(t)−N(t−l) = S(t)	N(t)/m (%)	S(t)/m (%)	n(t−l)	m−n(t−1)	Innovato rs(t)	Immitato rs(t)	p × m	Years	Sum
1	4.94029	4.94029	0	0.09	0	5754	494.0289	0	4.940289	2003	494.0289	T =	3.188558
2	499.792	494.852	9	8.60	4.9402885	5749.05971	493.6047	1.247394		2004	494.8521	s =	652.5008
3	1066.24	566.45	19	9.84	499.7923674	5254.20763	451.1175	115.3324		2005	566.4499
4	1688.25	622.004	29	10.81	1066.242278	4687.75772	402.4831	219.5207		2006	622.0038
5	2338.79	650.54	41	11.31	1688.246072	4065.75393	349.0789	301.4611		2007	650.54
6	2982.81	644.027	52	11.19	2338.786055	3415.21395	293.2246	350.8027		2008	644.0272
7	3583.78	600.963	62	10.44	2982.813302	2771.1867	237.9295	363.0332		2009	600.9627
8	4111.69	527.918	71	9.17	3583.775967	2170.22403	186.3318	341.5859		2010	527.9177
9	4549.27	437.577	79	7.60	4111.693659	1642.30634	141.0057	296.5715		2011	437.5772
10	4893.41	344.141	85	5.98	4549.270834	1204.72917	103.436	240.7053		2012	344.1414
11	5152.25	258.842	90	4.50	4893.412197	860.587803	73.88863	184.953		2013	258.8417
12	5340.08	187.83	93	3.26	5152.253868	601.746132	51.66492	136.1649		2014	187.8298
13	5472.7	132.615	95	2.30	5340.083647	413.916353	35.53817	97.07673		2015	132.6149
14	5564.46	91.7647	97	1.59	5472.698542	281.301458	24.15207	67.61265		2016	91.76473
15	5627.06	62.5936	98	1.09	5564.463271	189.536729	16.27331	46.32028		2017	62.59358
16	5669.33	42.2713	99	0.73	5627.056855	126.943145	10.89913	31.3722		2018	42.27133
17	5697.68	28.3524	99	0.49	5669.328186	84.6718136	7.269781	21.08264		2019	28.35242
18	5716.61	18.9287	99	0.33	5697.680605	56.3193954	4.835489	14.09323		2020	18.92872
19	5729.21	12.5979	100	0.22	5716.609325	37.3906752	3.210301	9.387637		2021	12.59794
20	5737.57	8.36707	100	0.15	5729.207263	24.7927369	2.128663	6.238404		2022	8.367067
21	5743.12	5.54938	100	0.10	5737.57433	16.42567	1.410281	4.1391		2023	5.54938
22	5746.8	3.67718	100	0.06	5743.12371	10.8762895	0.93382	2.743364		2024	3.677184
23	5749.24	2.43512	100	0.04	5746.800894	7.19910559	0.618103	1.817018		2025	2.435121
24	5750.85	1.61194	100	0.03	5749.236015	4.76398461	0.409028	1.202915		2026	1.611943
25	5751.91	1.06675	100	0.02	5750.847958	3.15204176	0.270629	0.79612		2027	1.066749
26	5752.62	0.70583	100	0.01	5751.914707	2.08529309	0.17904	0.526786		2028	0.705826
27	5753.09	0.46696	100	0.01	5752.620532	1.37946754	0.118439	0.348523		2029	0.466962
28	5753.4	0.30891	100	0.01	5753.087494	0.91250556	0.078346	0.230564		2030	0.30891
29	5753.6	0.20434	100%	0.00%	5753.396404	0.60359563	0.051824	0.152519		2031	0.204343

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Neethirajan, A., Maheshwari, P., Talla, R., Goyal, S., Kim, J., Daim, T. (2017). Technology Forecasting: Case of RFID Technology. In: Daim, T., Kim, J., Phan, K. (eds) Research and Development Management. Science, Technology and Innovation Studies. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-54537-0_9

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