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Disaster Risk Reduction in Indonesia pp 517–537Cite as

Flood Risk in Polder Systems in Jakarta: Present and Future Analyses

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Part of the book series: Disaster Risk Reduction ((DRR))

Abstract

Polder systems in Jakarta have been implemented since 1965, but their development has been hindered by social and political issues. Currently, the government of Jakarta has started to consider polder system as seen in the Spatial Plan 2030. This chapter assesses the benefits/costs of the polder system in Jakarta under current conditions and under future scenario of climate change, land use change, and subsidence.

We calculate the benefits of each polder using Damagescanner-Jakarta, which is a flood risk model developed in previous study. Cost estimates are based on the costs of 22 dike projects in Java. We use flood design standards at 2, 5, 10, 25, and 50 years, as set out in the Minister of Public Works.

The results show that benefit/cost ratios greater than 1 exist at 21 out of 66 polders reducing 25% of risk under current conditions, and at 31 out of 66 polders reducing 52% of risk under the future scenario (for a return period of 2 years). Much of this risk reduction could be achieved in just 3 polders, namely Kapuk Muara, Penjaringan Junction, and Kapuk Polgar, in which 50% of the current risk could be reduced. The study also shows that operating 12 polders could reduce risk by 81% in the future, and polders with very high net benefits are located away from the coastline. Sensitivity testing using lower (4%) and higher (10%) discount rates show the number of net benefiting polders reduces as the discount rate increases in a predictable trend.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    Yus Budiyono, Jeroen Aerts, Hans de Moel & Philip J. Ward

  2. Faculty of Geography, Universitas Gadjah Mada (UGM), Yogyakarta, Indonesia

    Muhammad Aris Marfai

Authors
  1. Yus Budiyono
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  2. Muhammad Aris Marfai
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  3. Jeroen Aerts
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  4. Hans de Moel
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  5. Philip J. Ward
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Yus Budiyono .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. United Nations University – Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), Bonn, Germany

    Riyanti Djalante

  2. United Nations University – Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), Bonn, Germany

    Matthias Garschagen

  3. Stockholm Environment Institute, Bangkok, Thailand

    Frank Thomalla

  4. Keio University, Fujisawa, Japan

    Rajib Shaw

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Budiyono, Y., Marfai, M.A., Aerts, J., de Moel, H., Ward, P.J. (2017). Flood Risk in Polder Systems in Jakarta: Present and Future Analyses. In: Djalante, R., Garschagen, M., Thomalla, F., Shaw, R. (eds) Disaster Risk Reduction in Indonesia. Disaster Risk Reduction. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-54466-3_21

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