The Pseudo in Our Science

Abstract

Lewis explores the ways in which scientific knowledge claims are legitimised through assessing their falsifiability. Beginning with an exploration of the construction and use of climate models, Lewis questions whether climate models are falsifiable. From a scientific perspective, knowledge that is not falsifiable is considered pseudo-science. By exploring the model tools used in climate science, Lewis problematises this traditional binary between science and pseudo-science. In response, Lewis poses a new way of evaluating knowledge claims, which are alternatively viewed on a spectrum and assessed by their usefulness. This spectrum of knowledge is applied to various climate sceptic claims around temperature records and wind power to demonstrate the value of Lewis’s reappraisal of knowledge claims.

Glossary

Approximated

 The process of estimating the true value.

Continuous equations

 Mathematical equations where small changes in the input numbers results in small changes in the output values. These are based on a continuous number line, unlike discrete mathematics where distinct, rather than continuous, numbers are central.

Discretisation

 The process of solving mathematical equations by using smaller steps and computations as a method of approximation.

Ensemble

 The use of slightly different models of the climate system together in order to understand aspects of uncertainty.

Emergent properties

A property evident in a collection of components or complex system but which the individual members or parts do not have.

Empirical/empirically

 Based on observation and experiment, rather than theory or postulation.

External forcings

 Any influence on the climate that originates from outside the climate system itself. For example, changes in solar radiation and greenhouse gas concentrations are forcings.

Experiment

 The use of a climate model with a specific set of inputs and conditions. For example, an experiment using a climate model might aim to simulate the climate of the twentieth century, using a suite of changes in atmospheric composition, vegetation and solar radiation. See Taylor et al. (2012) for further details.

Falsifiability

 The knowledge claims of science are assessed through examining their falsifiability. Any contradictory instance to a scientific theory is sufficient to falsify that theory, regardless of how many positive examples appear to support it.

Fundamental natural laws

 Universal physical laws that are based on repeated scientific experiment and observations. Many fundamental physical laws are mathematical consequences of various symmetries of space, time, or other aspects of nature.

Internal variability

 Fluctuations in the weather and climate that are due to processes internal to the climate system, such as atmospheric and oceanic dynamics. The well-known El Niño-Southern Oscillation system is an example of internal climate variability.

Legitimacy

 The legitimacy of scientific knowledge is assessed through its falsifiability and adherence to key scientific concepts, such as the scientific method. This approach distinguished true science from the claims of pseudo-science, which are conversely, lacking in legitimacy.

Observations/observed

 Aspects of the physical climate system that are measured through instruments, such as thermometers, anemometers, rainfall gauges or satellites, rather than simulated using climate models.

Parameterisations

 The process of deciding on and defining the key aspects necessary to fully specific a model.

Problems

 Here I do not refer to problems in an ordinary sense. Rather, I refer to problems in terms of their capacity for usefulness as part of a creative process in research that allows us a deeper and richer connection to science.

Pseudo-science

 Here I use a precise meaning of pseudo-science, beyond the popular categorisation of beliefs such as astrology and homeopathy, which are mistaken for science, but are actually pseudo-science. Here, pseudo-science is more broadly a collection of practices that do not follow the scientific method or cannot be falsified, and hence lack true scientific status.

Simulation

 A single outcome of running a climate model experiment. A simulation (or realisation) of climate represents one possible pathway that the climate system might follow.

Skilful

 A term applied to climate models and simulations, referring to their ability to capture accurately key observed aspects of the climate system.