Abstract
Stable population theory underpins much of our intuition about population dynamics and it continues to have a fundamental influence on research in demography. It has been well documented that any population subject to a stable set of birth, death, and migration rates will converge to a stable equilibrium characterized by a constant rate of growth and a stable proportional age-structure. In this chapter, we present the classical stable population model in terms of cohort change ratios (CCRs), demonstrate the consistency of this approach with classical stable population theory using CCR-based demographic forecasts, and evaluate the effect of the components of population change on convergence to a stable population. We conclude the chapter by showing how CCRs can lead to novel analyses aimed at answering traditional questions in stable population theory.
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Notes
- 1.
The births are adjusted for infant and child survivorship probabilities.
- 2.
Net migration from 2000 to 2005 was computed using the residual method by subtracting female natural increase from the female population change. Births and deaths were obtained from the Hellenic Statistical Authority (2016).
- 3.
The general fertility rate is computed by dividing female births by females aged 15 to 44.
- 4.
Three countries had outlying TFRs greater than 3 (Tajikistan (3.28), Saudi Arabia (3.43), and Guatemala (4.23)). We excluded these countries from the average used to classify the TFRs. This resulted in a more even distribution between high and low TFR countries (28 High and 34 Low). If the unadjusted average was used 6 countries would have been from High to Low TFR.
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Baker, J., Swanson, D.A., Tayman, J., Tedrow, L.M. (2017). Stable Population Theory. In: Cohort Change Ratios and their Applications. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-53745-0_12
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