Potential Effects of Climate Changes on Landslide Activity in Different Geomorphological Contexts
The anthropogenic global warming could significantly affect weather patterns, with variable impacts at the regional scale. Geo-hydrological hazards represent an interesting example of the possible impacts. We present a study of the effects of potential climate change on slope stability conditions in two different contexts in the Italian Apennines. Although the two examined sites are 400 km apart, climate simulations return similar variations in weather patterns, which are characterized by a strong increase in air temperature, a reduction in seasonal cumulative precipitation, and an increase in daily precipitation. In spite of the similar input, the response of the two sites, lying respectively on saturated clays and on unsaturated non-plastic silts, might be completely different. Although these studies do not currently provide quantitative estimates, they represent a valuable support to policy makers and communities for the definition and prioritization of adaptation actions and for investments to cope with the expected climate changes.
KeywordsAdaptation to climate change Regional climate models Bias correction Clayey soils Pyroclastic soils Italy
The contribution from the Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research and the Italian Ministry of Environment, Land and Sea under the GEMINA project is acknowledged.
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