Landslide Deformation Prediction by Numerical Simulation in the Three Gorges, China Open image in new window
A few ancient landslides have been reported to be reactivated by the water level fluctuation in the Three Gorges Reservoir, China. On-site monitoring by Global Positioning System (GPS) is one of the most effective and accessible methods to understand the landslide deformation characteristic, which is the dominant factor for evaluating and predicting landslide stability. However, the monitoring points are usually limited and dispersed in landslides. A 3-D numerical simulation model was employed to study the spatial deformation of a landslide in the Three Gorges area, which was established according to its geological condition, and verified by comparisons of actual monitoring information and simulation recording data during a filling-drawdown cycle of the reservoir. The water level fluctuation has caused the landslide deformation, especially during the drawdown. The strong deformation zone exists in the forepart of the landslide, which lies mainly between 140.0 m and 200.0 m (EL.). The reservoir water variation controls the deformation of forepart near the river of the landslide. If the shear strength of slip surface reduces to c = 22.1 kPa, Φ = 8.7°, which is resulted by cyclic water filling-drawdown, the failure would occur and almost whole part of the landslide would be in plastic state.
KeywordsReservoir landslide Spatial distribution of deformation Numerical simulation Prediction
This study was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of Hubei Province (No. 2015CFB358) and National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41372359). The authors are indebted to Prof. Echuan Yan from China University of Geosciences for his valuable suggestion.
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