Nonlinear Optimal Control and Filtering for Financial Systems

Abstract

A new nonlinear optimal control approach is proposed for stabilization of the dynamics of a chaotic finance model. The dynamic model of the financial system, which expresses interaction between the interest rate, the investment demand, the price exponent and the profit margin, undergoes approximate linearization round local operating points. These local equilibria are defined at each iteration of the control algorithm and consist of the present value of the system’s state vector and the last value of the control inputs vector that was exerted on it. The approximate linearization makes use of Taylor series expansion and of the computation of the associated Jacobian matrices. The truncation of higher order terms in the Taylor series expansion is considered to be a modelling error that is compensated by the robustness of the control loop. As the control algorithm runs, the temporary equilibrium is shifted towards the reference trajectory and finally converges to it. The control method needs to compute an H-infinity feedback control law at each iteration, and requires the repetitive solution of an algebraic Riccati equation. Through Lyapunov stability analysis it is shown that an H-infinity tracking performance criterion holds for the control loop. This implies elevated robustness against model approximations and external perturbations. Moreover, under moderate conditions the global asymptotic stability of the control loop is proven.