Abstract
An agent-based computer model is developed to explore the effects of different subsidy policies and resilience of rural development in the PLR. The model represents land-use and livelihood decision making of farmer households in three types of villages that have poor, average, and rich farmland. Household agents allocate their labor between nonfarm and agricultural work, and make rice cropping choices. They also exchange farmland in a land rental market. Three policy scenarios are examined: subsidies to rice growers, subsidies to large farms, and subsidies to households that rent out their farmland for the long term. The model experiments are not intended to make quantitative predictions but to aid our understanding about (1) the nature and potential effects of these policies across different villages at different stages of development, and (2) how rural development may be affected by economic and environmental shocks. I discuss how policy may need to differentiate across locations and adapt in the near future to effectively promote rural development amid social and environmental changes.
Part of the material from this chapter was published in Agricultural Systems (Tian et al. 2016).
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Axtell, R., & Epstein, J. M. (1994). Agent-based modeling: Understanding our creations. The Bulletin of the Santa Fe Institute, 9(2), 28–32.
Bloomberg Businessweek (2016, June 11). 东莞的周末静悄悄:机器人来了,工厂灯灭了. Retrieved September 01, 2016, from http://toutiao.com/i6294771976330281473 (in Chinese).
Brown, D. G., Robinson, D. T., An, L., Nassauer, J. I., Zellner, M., Rand, W., et al. (2008). Exurbia from the bottom up: Confronting empirical challenges to characterizing complex systems. Geoforum, 39, 805–818.
Deng, X., Huang, J., Rozelle, S., & Uchida, E. (2006). Cultivated land conversion and potential agricultural productivity in China. Land Use Policy, 23(4), 372–384.
Gale, H. F., Lohmar, B., & Tuan, F. C. (2005). China’s new farm subsidies. USDA-ERS WRS-05-01.
Gale, H. F. (2013). Growth and evolution in China’s agricultural support policies (USDA-ERS Economic Research Report, 153). Washington, D.C.: United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. Retrieved from http://www.ers.usda.gov/media/1156829/err153.pdf
Gao, L., Huang, J., & Rozelle, S. (2012). Rental markets for cultivated land and agricultural investments in China. Agricultural Economics, 43, 391–403.
Grimm, V., Revilla, E., Berger, U., Jeltsch, F., Mooij, W. M., Railsback, S. F., et al. (2005). Pattern-oriented modeling of agent-based complex systems: Lessons from ecology. Science, 310, 987–991.
Hazell, P. B., & Rahman, A. (Eds.). (2014). New directions for smallholder agriculture. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Heerink, N., Kuiper, M., & Shi, X. (2006). China’s new rural income support policy: Impacts on grain production and rural income inequality. China & World Economy, 14(6), 58–69.
Huang, J., Wang, X., Zhi, H., Huang, Z., & Rozelle, S. (2011). Subsidies and distortions in China’s agriculture: Evidence from producer-level data. Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 55, 53–71.
Huang, J., Wang, X., & Rozelle, S. (2013). The subsidization of farming households in China’s agriculture. Food Policy, 41, 124–132.
Lichtenberg, E., & Ding, C. (2008). Assessing farmland protection policy in China. Land Use Policy, 25(1), 59–68.
Liu, J., Liu, M., Tian, H., Zhuang, D., Zhang, Z., Zhang, W., & Deng, X. (2005). Spatial and temporal patterns of China’s cropland during 1990–2000: An analysis based on Landsat TM data. Remote Sensing of Environment, 98(4), 442–456.
Ma, X., Heerink, N., van Ierland, E., Lang, H., & Shi, X. (2015). Land rental market development in rural China—Impact of tenure security and trust. Paper presented at the Annual World Bank Conference on Land and Poverty, Washington DC, March 23–27, 2015. Retrieved from https://www.conftool.com/landandpoverty2015/index.php?page=browseSessions&form_session=199&presentations=show
Otsuka, K. (2013). Food insecurity, income inequality, and the changing comparative advantage in world agriculture. Agricultural Economics, 44(s1), 7–18.
Otsuka, K., Liu, Y., & Yamauchi, F. (2014). The future of small farms in Asia. In Paper for Future Agricultures Consortium.
Rigg, J., Salamanca, A., & Thompson, E. C. (2016). The puzzle of East and Southeast Asia’s persistent smallholder. Journal of Rural Studies, 43, 118–133.
Robinson, S. (1997). Simulation model verification and validation: increasing the users’ confidence. In Proceedings of the 29th conference on winter simulation (pp. 53–59). IEEE Computer Society.
Seto, K. C., Fragkias, M., Güneralp, B., & Reilly, M. K. (2011). A meta-analysis of global urban land expansion. PLoS One, 6(8), e23777.
Tian, Q., Holland, J. H., & Brown, D. G. (2016). Social and economic impacts of subsidy policies on rural development in the Poyang Lake Region, China: Insights from an agent-based model. Agricultural Systems, 148, 12–27.
Varian, H. R. (2002). Intermediate microeconomics: A modern approach. 6th ed. W. WNorton & Company. New York.
World Agricultural Organization (FAO’s). (1990, 2000, and 2010). World Census of Agriculture (WCA). Retrieved from http://www.fao.org/economic/ess/ess-wca/en/
Yi, F., Sun, D., & Zhou, Y. (2015). Grain subsidy, liquidity constraints and food security-Impact of the grain subsidy program on the grain-sown areas in China. Food Policy, 50, 114–124.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2017 The Author(s)
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Tian, Q. (2017). Exploring Future Rural Development in the Poyang Lake Region. In: Rural Sustainability. SpringerBriefs in Geography. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-52685-0_5
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-52685-0_5
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-52684-3
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-52685-0
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)