Abstract
Having discussed the reasons behind and the manifestations of overconfidence in the previous chapter, this chapter intends to show why choices made by Turkish policy makers were overconfident through reference to some objective indicators against which the confidence of Turkish policy makers is measured. Factors brought to bear on the overconfidence of Turkish policy makers are evaluated under capability-aspiration gap, weak domestic consensus, and regional competition and foreign policy obstacles. This chapter also lists the costs of Syria policy to Turkey. In addition, it discusses how Turkish foreign policy decision makers’ risk perception was biased by overconfidence. Finally, it attempts to eliminate rival explanations. It specifically argues that overconfidence of Turkish policy makers was due to biased interpretation of the outcomes of uprisings preceding Syria instead of being propelled by the achievements of Turkey in the decade preceding uprisings. The chapter concludes with general discussion of the case in terms of its implications for the theoretical model.
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Demir, I. (2017). Why Turkish Overconfidence Was Too Obvious. In: Overconfidence and Risk Taking in Foreign Policy Decision Making. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-52605-8_5
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