Abstract
This chapter deals with the seismic impact of the Brexit referendum, and the consequences of the impending British exit – both for the nation and the EU as a whole. It looks at the growing mood of Eurosceptism since the ongoing Eurozone and migration crises of the region – coupled with a general discontent with an economic order perceived as rigged by business and political elites. Millions of UK (and EU) citizens have for a long time felt disenfranchised from both the political decision-making processes and the supposed benefits of globalisation; and, in tandem with this, voters of all major parties have grown ever more hostile towards the free movement of peoples. Brexit is discussed as a culmination of these forces, and its likely consequences are examined in detail.
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Notes
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Nice and Lisbon treaty.
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‘The British public has had enough of experts’, Michael Gove was able to effectively claim in a Question Time interview.
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Conservative party Conference Birmingham 2nd October 2016.
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Article 50 Lisbon Treaty, there are other means to leave the EU, but both the UK and the EU have agreed this would be the process for Brexit. To start the process, the UK must make a formal decision to leave the EU and notify the EU Council of member states of this decision. Once triggered, there will be a maximum two-year deadline for exit. At the end of two years, even if no agreement has been reached, the UK will cease to be an EU member state. The deadline can only be extended by unanimous consent. In theory, Britain could leave in less than two years if there is agreement.
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Chancellor Merkel at her Berlin meeting with Teresa May 20th July afterwards said in support of the Prime Minister that it was right and necessary for Britain ‘to take a moment’ to work out what it wants.… We are listening to the UK, we are listening to Britain what it actually wants and then we will give our right response’.
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Reported in the FT July 22nd 2016.
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Art. 50 of the Lisbon Treaty 1st December 2009.
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A phrase famously used by a former US defence secretary Donald Rumsfelt once put it to questions at a NATO press conference before the invasion of Iraq in 2003. www.nato.int/docu/speech/2002/s020606g.htm6 Jun 2002 a statement made by Donald Rumsfelt at a NATO press conference in answer to a question as to evidence of weapons of mass destruction held by the Iraqi regime.
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In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and concluded an agreement with that state, to be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the functioning of the European Union.
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In addition the conservative party general election manifesto was to ‘let the people decide’ ergo not a promise to hold an advisory referendum but stronger closer to representing the ‘will of the people’.
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There has never been any doubt that a member state could leave the EU in practice under International law.
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www.ft.com › Comment › The Big Read FT 20th July 2016.
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He also pledged Government funding to cover the cost of any projects which have secured EU structural funding before the 2016 Autumn Statement, which was worth up to £2.3billion a year including the cost of funds for science parks and research facilities.
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The UK could stay in the Erasmus scheme if Brexit accepts a Norway option.
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Ibid.
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www.theguardian.com › Education › Higher education.
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Jeremy Cooper, Managing Director of Hobsons in Europe, said: ‘Market conditions for international student recruitment look set to toughen and universities need to send a clear message that the UK welcomes international students, as well as providing practical guidance and support.’
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Almost half the money in the funds comes from the European Regional Development Fund, with the European Investment Bank matching that with a repayable loan, with the rest from local resources.
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Interview on Sept 2016.
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Ibid.
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Ibid.
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‘EIB Chief warns UK will struggle without cheap EU loans’, https://www.ft.com/content/5494d5ea-8e0d-11e6-8df8-d3778b55a923.
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The portfolio included responsibility for the regulation of banks and markets in the EU.
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www.consilium.europa.eu > council-eu.
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Interview held on 11th July 2016 with Michael Kobosko Director Atlantic Council; Wroclaw Global Forum.
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Treaty on the European Union 2009 Art: 17.7.
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The President must be further approved by a majority of those elected Members of the European Parliament.
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In a domestic parliament such as in the UK, proposals are made into ‘bills’ which are then debated by each House. Bills in most cases are in fact introduced by the government and in the case of taxation by the House of Commons.
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In QMV, a law passes if it is backed by 16 out of 28 countries that make up at least 65% of the EU population. The UK has 13% of the EU population, ergo gets a 13% vote share.
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This is not just a British problem’, says Professor Jan Gorecki, a former ambassador to Denmark in an interview held on 13th July 2016 at SGGW Warsaw University of Applied Sciences.
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JG went to explain in ‘Poland needs integration in the country’ now divided into liberal and conservative JG advocating a process of individualism – ‘no collective discussion of political issues’ – a notion of ‘political correctness’ is coming very much in Poland.
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Interviews held on the 14 and 15th of June during the Plenary Sessions with members of the Committee of the Regions (CoR).
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Interview held on 13th July 2016 with Professor Jan Gorecki at SGGW Warsaw University of Applied Sciences, a former ambassador to Denmark.
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Interview with Professor Patrick Minford, 4th July 2016. Chair of ‘Economists for Brexit’ campaign group.
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Interview with Professor Patrick Minford, 4th July 2016. Chair of ‘Economists for Brexit’ campaign group.
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By remaining in the customs Union industrial manufactured goods exported to and from the UK would not be subject to EU customs duties and custom border checks that would increase their cost and risk the value chains between the UK manufacturing sector and the European Union.
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Leaving the customs union (and single market) to trade under the WTO from 2019 would not only involve companies such as Nissan Toyota and Kia paying a 10% tariff to sell cars into Europe (and the other 53 markets with which the EU has trade deals) but it would also put supply chains at risk as most of the parts have to be imported and will then have to abide by the rules of origin. £12bn of the £15bn materials needed to build cars are imported to the UK (annually).
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July 27th 2016 irishpost.co.uk/prime-minister-theresa-may-taoiseach-enda-kenny-promise-close-relati.…
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The EU has this deal with six of its largest trading partners: USA, Japan, and the Brics: Brazil, China, India and Russia.
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Interview with Professor Minford on 4th July 2016.
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In terms of GDP, the drop in the value of the £ sterling against the Euro may challenge the ongoing veracity of that claim. Below £1/ 1.16 the UK takes up third place behind France.
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Financial Times Friday 7th of October 2016.
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City law firms have been registering solicitors in the Republic of Ireland to continue in practicing in EU law following Brexit.
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The fall in Sterling will affect Ryanair, which reports in Euro.
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A Norway solution would avoid all this but then the UK would be accepting freedom of movement (and budget contributions) the very concerns that the Leave group campaigned against in the Referendum.
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Interview with the authors 5th August 2016.
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An AOC would require the airline to have a subsidiary in that country, but that would not be an obstacle as EasyJet already has bases and operations across Europe. The holding company would have to be 51% owned by local investors and would have to comply with local regulations.
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Interview with the authors on the 5th August 2016.
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Inbound tourism from the EU and globally will profit from a weaker pound following the Referendum.
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Theodore, J., Theodore, J., Syrrakos, D. (2017). Brexit and the Referendum Vote. In: The European Union and the Eurozone under Stress . Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-52292-0_5
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