Skip to main content

“Black Swan”: New Greatness, False Europe and the Ukraine Crisis (2002–2014)

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Russian-European Relations in the Balkans and Black Sea Region
  • 583 Accesses

Abstract

The chapter identifies three factors/conditions that provoked the Russian-European crisis. The first condition was V. Putin’s attempt to redefine Russia’s greatness in terms of “Western normalcy”, i.e. consumption and competitive economy. The second condition was the unique cognitive change in the mind of the Russian political elite. Deep interest in Europe and an acquaintance with the Western academic discourse pushed Russian elites to adopt a more reflective attitude toward the very idea of “True Europe” and a more assertive foreign policy. The third factor was the Ukrainian revolution, which triggered the most conflictual geo-economic interpretations in the Kremlin. In the chapter I will show how practical and representational elements of identity can explain specific moves in Russian foreign policy, including differences between its policy in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

eBook
USD 16.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Notes

  1. 1.

    Quoted by A. Dugin, “Konets Mechty o Mnogopoliusnom Mire”, Izvestia, 12 October 2002.

  2. 2.

    V. Putin, Annual Address to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation, 16 May 2003, Russian version available at: http://archive.kremlin.ru/text/appears/2003/05/44623.shtml; English translation http://www.ln.mid.ru/brp_4.nsf/0/b9c87040d4a8fce2c3256ec9001d199a?OpenDocument; Interestingly enough the English translation of the speech at the Presidential website has no reference to Great Powerhood.

  3. 3.

    Ibid .

  4. 4.

    V. Putin, Annual Address to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation, 16 May 2003, Russian version available at: http://archive.kremlin.ru/text/appears/2003/05/44623.shtml; English translation http://www.ln.mid.ru/brp_4.nsf/0/b9c87040d4a8fce2c3256ec9.

  5. 5.

    In Russian the term “borba” was used; it has connotations of wrestling, struggle, and battle.

  6. 6.

    L. Poliakov, “Narod Protiv Sozdania ‘Narodnogo Fronta’ Vladimira Putina”, Echo of Moscow Radiostation, 11 May 2011; available at: http://www.echo.msk.ru/programs/opponent/773364-echo/

  7. 7.

    V. Putin, Excerpts from a transcript of the News Conference for Russian and Foreign Journalists, 24 June 2002; available at: http://archive.kremlin.ru/eng/speeches/2002/06/24/0000_type82915type82917_151034.shtml.

  8. 8.

    V. Putin, Excerpts from a transcript of President Putin’s Internet Conference, 6 March 2001; available at: http://archive.kremlin.ru/eng/speeches/2001/03/06/0059_type82917type148989_138857.shtml.

  9. 9.

    For more details on this, see V. Samokhvalov, Relations in the Russia-Ukraine-EU triangle: “zero-sum game” or not?, Occasional Paper No. 68, (Paris: European Union Institute for Security Studies, September 2007)

  10. 10.

    Interview with a Georgian diplomat in Greece, April 2004.

  11. 11.

    A. Rettman, “EU’s new Black Sea Policy Faces Russia’s Misgiving”, EU Observer, 24 February 2007.

  12. 12.

    S. Lavrov, Remarks following the Ministerial Meeting of the Organisation of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation, 15 March 2009, available at: http://www.mid.ru/brp_4.nsf/0/61E8102E1573A8C8C325759A00596DDC.

  13. 13.

    S. Lavrov, A Conversation with Russia, Speech at the Brussels Forum, 21 March 2009, available at: http://www.gmfus.org/brusselsforum/2009/docs/BFDay2_ConversationRussia.doc.

  14. 14.

    If one looks at direct quote it shows the extent of Putin’s scepticism towards Europe when he mentioned: “If you need a wrist-watch, underwear or tie, you go to the EU. When you need something from the primary sector of the economy it is Russia whom you should seek”. Never before has a Russian leader used such a condescending tone when speaking about Europe.

  15. 15.

    V. Putin: Zaiavlenie dlia pressy I tovety na voprosy po itogam peregovorov s Premier Ministrom Gretsii Konstantinosom Karamanlisom, 29 April 2008; available at: http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/24936; last accessed 8 November 2016.

  16. 16.

    K. Kosachev, “Diktat Nekompetentnosti”, Rossiya v Globalnoi Politike, January-February 2006, available at: http://www.globalaffairs.ru/number/n_6318.

  17. 17.

    V. Ivanov, “Another Europe”, Izvestia, 14 July 2006. (go University Library – Digital Collections – Databases – Eastchance – Izvestia); also V. Ivanov, Druagay Evropa, Vzgliad, 30 June 2006; available at http://vz.ru/columns/2006/6/30/39587.html; last accessed 10 March 2015.

  18. 18.

    A Survey of Russian Federation Foreign Policy, Russian MFA, 2008, available at: http://www.mid.ru/brp_4.nsf/e78a48070f128a7b43256999005bcbb3/89a30b3a6b65b4f2c32572d700292f74?OpenDocument.

  19. 19.

    V. Samokhvalov, Russia, EU to take their chances in Africa, New Europe, 17 March 2008; available at: https://www.neweurope.eu/article/russia-eu-take-their-chances-africa/; last accessed on 9 August 2016.

  20. 20.

    Rossia ne budet pomogati ES, Voenno-Promyshlenny Kurier, 27 February-5 March 2013, available at: http://vpk-news.ru/sites/default/files/pdf/VPK_08_476.pdf; last accessed 9 August 2016.

  21. 21.

    Stanislav Belkovskiy: Osoboe mnenie, Ekho Moskvy, 25 January 2013, available at: http://echo.msk.ru/programs/personalno/995550-echo/.

  22. 22.

    V. Putin, “Novyi integratsionnyi proekt dlia Evrazii – budushchee, kotoroe rozhdaetsia segodnia”, Izvestiia, 4 October 2011.

  23. 23.

    This point was repeated in Russian Military Doctrine of 29 June 2015 and Russia Federation Maritime Doctrine of 27 July 2016; available at: http://rusemb.org.uk/press/2029 and http://static.kremlin.ru/media/events/files/ru/uAFi5nvux2twaqjftS5yrIZUVTJan77L.pdf; last accessed 5 August 2016;

  24. 24.

    R. Manson, E. Rumer, Conflict in Ukraine: The Unwinding of the Post-Cold War Order (Cambridge & London: MIT Press, 2015).

  25. 25.

    Quoted in R. Sakwa, Frontline Ukraine: Crisis in the Borderlands, I.B. (London: Taurius & Co, 2014), 73.

  26. 26.

    In more details see R. Dragneva-Lewers, K. Wolczuk, Ukraine Between the EU and Russia: The Integration Challenge (New York: Palgrave, 2015).

  27. 27.

    In more details V. Samokhvalov, Ukraine between Russia and the European Union: Triangle Revisited, Europe-Asia Studies, 67, 9 (2015): 1371–1393.

  28. 28.

    A. Wilson, Ukraine Crisis: What the West Needs to Know (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2014), 66.

  29. 29.

    G. Makarenko, “Weimarskiy treugolnik” obiedenilsia vokrug Ukrainy, RBC.RU, 2 April 2014; available at: http://www.rbc.ru/politics/02/04/2014/57041a6f9a794761c0ce87fd; last accessed 10 August 2016.

  30. 30.

    Interview with Russian official, Moscow, 2016.

  31. 31.

    O. Goncharova, “Russia among European Countries: Yesterday, Today, Tomorrow: Reflecting on a Wider Europe and Beyond: Norms, Rights and Interests”, presented at the Central and East European International Studies Association (CEEISA) 4th Convention; University of Tartu, Estonia, 25–27 June 2006, available at: http://www.ceeisaconf.ut.ee/109100, last accessed on 25 October 2010; G. Gudkov, Zhdet li Rorryu sudba SSSR, 17 March 2016, available at: http://echo.msk.ru/blog/gudkov/1731062-echo/; last accessed 12 September 2016.

  32. 32.

    I. Strelkov vs. N. Starikov “Tsenrysily’/Silatsentra”, 22 January 2015, available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G04tXnvKx8Y; last accessed 9 August 2016.

  33. 33.

    D. Tymchuk et al., Vtorzhenie v Ukrainu: Khronika Rossiyskoi Agressii (Kiev: Bright Star Publishing), 7–9.

  34. 34.

    National Security and Defence Council Minutes demonstrated that majority of Ukrainian policy-makers were paralysed by the thought of imminent and full-scale Russian invasion. Available at: http://www.pravda.com.ua/articles/2016/02/22/7099911/; last accessed on 16 August 2016.

  35. 35.

    M. Siddi, German Foreign Policy towards Russia in the Aftermath of the Ukraine Crisis: A New Ostpolitik?, Europe-Asia Studies, 68, 4.

  36. 36.

    Interview with EU official, 23 June 2016; See also the EU Statement on the ending of trilateral meetings with Russia; http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2015/december/tradoc_154127.pdf.

  37. 37.

    D. Tymchuk et al., Vtorzhenie v Ukrainu: Khronika Rossiyskoi Agressii (Kiev: Bright Star Publishing), 12–36.

  38. 38.

    R. Manson, E. Rumer, Conflict in Ukraine: The Unwinding of the World Order (Cambridge & London: MIT Press, 2015), 84–85.

  39. 39.

    Marat Gelman, Voenny Plan Kremlia, Nova Khvylia, 30 Augut 2014; available at: http://nv.ua/opinion/gelman/voennyy-plan-kremlya–9686.html; last accesed 28 July 2016.

  40. 40.

    In more details in this tactics see P. Pomerantsev, Nothing Is True and Everything Is Possible: The Surreal Heart of the New Russia (New York: Public Affairs, 2014).

  41. 41.

    T. Forsberg, From Ostpolitik to “frostpolitik”? Merkel, Putin and German foreign policy towards Russia, International Affairs, 92, 1 (January 2016).

  42. 42.

    J. Borger, A. Luhn, Geneva Talks Produce Agreement on diffusing conflict, The Guardian, 17 April 2014 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/17/ukraine-crisis-agreement-us-russia-eu.

  43. 43.

    This policy is not something new. Russia tried to expand the role of the OSCE secretariat in 2006 seeking to take over key role within the expanded secretariat.

  44. 44.

    SBU vyslala rosiykogo ofitsera ра v STsKK cherez dialinisti, sho superechnist Minskim domoblennostiam, Press Release Security Service of Ukraine, 22 June 2016, available at: https://ssu.gov.ua/ua/news/1/category/2/view/1260; last accessed 1 August 2016.

  45. 45.

    http://sergey-prach.tumblr.com/post/146799614983/%D0%B7%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B6%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%BD%D1%8B%D0%B9-%D0%BD%D0%B0-%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B1%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%81%D0%B5-%D0%B1%D0%BE%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%BA-%D0%B8%D0%B7-%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B0%D0%BF%D1%8B-%D0%BE%D0%B1%D1%81%D0%B5.

  46. 46.

    Hollande rasklyl tainy prinuzhdenia Putina k miru, Radio France International, 12 October 2016, available at: http://ru.rfi.fr/frantsiya/20161013-olland-raskryl-tainy-prinuzhdeniya-putina-k-miru; last accessed 5 November 2016.

  47. 47.

    OSCE Claims that Joint Centre for Control and Coordination not responds to denials of access in Luhansk region, Ukrinform, 27 July 2016, available at: http://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-defense/2054905-osce-claims-that-joint-center-for-control-and-coordination-not-responds-to-denials-of-access-in-luhansk-region.html; last accessed 1 August 2016.

  48. 48.

    Interview in Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, July 2016.

  49. 49.

    Interview with Foreign Minister of Ukraine: Pavlo Klimkin, Levy Bereg s Sonei Koshkinoi, 31 October 2016, available at: http://ukr.lb.ua/news/2016/10/31/349456_pavlo_klimkin_lyudi_25_roki.html; last accessed 7 November 2016.

  50. 50.

    R. Bezsmetrny, Speech at “Svoboda Slova” TV programme, 10 Jun e016, available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MmTkE2oOdyA; last accessed 1 August 2016.

  51. 51.

    Interview with Ukrainian diplomat, 1 August 2016.

  52. 52.

    T. Forsberg, From Ostpolitik to “frostpolitik”? Merkel, Putin and German foreign policy towards Russia, International Affairs, 92, 1 (January 2016).

  53. 53.

    Rakhmanin S., Krayniy god, Zerkalno Nedeli, 6 August 2016, available a: http://gazeta.zn.ua/internal/krayniy-god-_.html; last accessed 8 November 2016.

  54. 54.

    According to Clunan’s study it normally takes three to four years of consistent foreign policy failures to make a country reconsider its identity.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2017 The Author(s)

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Samokhvalov, V. (2017). “Black Swan”: New Greatness, False Europe and the Ukraine Crisis (2002–2014). In: Russian-European Relations in the Balkans and Black Sea Region. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-52078-0_7

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics