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Modeling Research

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Unconventional Conflict

Part of the book series: Understanding Complex Systems ((UCS))

Abstract

Before the U.S. government started worrying about unconventional conflict, science fiction authors had posited models of human behavior. The most popular early entry was Asimov’s psychohistory (Asimov, 1951). The concept was an analog of the gas laws of physics: although the motion of a particular molecule of gas is essentially random, when large enough numbers of gas molecules are present, the actions of the mass of gas molecules can be predicted. Similarly, laws of human actions in the aggregate should be discoverable. In this chapter, we will look at several modeling constructs that have been advanced for models of unconventional conflict. We review the many technical modeling approaches that might be used for these models and follow with the descriptions of several models that have been created to answer questions about unconventional conflict. We conclude with the results of a series of workshops concerning modeling requirements.

Trial and error is better than no trial; it may lead to learning.

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  1. Hartley Consulting, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA

    Dean S. Hartley III

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  1. Dean S. Hartley III
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Hartley, D.S. (2017). Modeling Research. In: Unconventional Conflict. Understanding Complex Systems. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-51935-7_3

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