Abstract
This chapter reviews the existing literature on presidential activism in more detail and develops the explanatory framework for the book as well as a set of eight hypotheses. The literature review is structured by the notion of presidency- and president-centred approaches, which focus on institutions and exogenous influences and individual-level determinants of presidential activism, respectively. Thereby, it combines insights from the study of US-American and European presidents. Given the higher degree of theorisation and empirical support enjoyed by presidency-centred approaches, they are chosen as the basis for the new theoretical framework, which also draws on the political opportunity framework. Eight hypotheses on the effect of constitutional factors and variables related to the political environment are formulated to form the basis for statistical analysis and qualitative case studies. Finally, the chapter concludes by discussing some limitations of the chosen approach and demonstrates how these are largely remedied by the mixed-methods research design.
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- 2.
Presidents cannot ‘choose to be popular’ (Gilmour 2002, 207) so that popularity has to be seen as a factor beyond their control rather than a president-centred variable.
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Similarly, Müller and Strøm (1999, 11) also assume that ‘votes’ can only be an instrumentally valued goal.
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These spoils include material gains such as remuneration and other privileges (residence, office, official car, etc.) as well as non-material benefits, such as prestige and guaranteed public attention.
- 6.
Owing to the high visibility of the presidential office, the opportunities for post-presidency spoils (for instance book contracts, speaking engagements, etc.) should be largely the same for presidents serving one term or two terms. Pensions and other privileges of retired presidents also tend to be unaffected by the number of terms served in office. However, one can assume that presidents will still prefer ‘in-office’ spoils of a second term to ‘post-office’ spoils due to their policy motivation and the material and non-material benefits of the office.
- 7.
Unfortunately, there is no comparative research on such voter expectations in semi-presidential systems yet. However, Jalali (2012) shows that the incumbency advantage of directly elected presidents is often partially attributed to the fact that they can use their powers to win voters.
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Köker, P. (2017). Determinants of Presidential Activism. In: Presidential Activism and Veto Power in Central and Eastern Europe. Palgrave Studies in Presidential Politics. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-51914-2_2
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