System Effects of Widespread Use of Fully Automated Vehicles—Three Scenarios

  • Wolfgang GruelEmail author
  • Joseph M. Stanford
Part of the Lecture Notes in Mobility book series (LNMOB)


As a promising technology close to entering the market, fully automated vehicles (AVs) have been widely analyzed from many angles. In spite of many discussions and articles published on the subject, there has been little structured analysis of the broader system-level effects of full adoption of AVs, and therefore a lack of consideration of the potential effects of multiple simultaneous causal relationships and feedback loops. This paper utilizes an existing system dynamics model that conceptually illustrates many important dynamics in surface transportation systems. It builds on this model, incorporating changes that are likely to occur under three different scenarios of AV adoption.


Autonomous driving Self-driving vehicles Automation Automated driving Driverless cars Long-Term effects System dynamics 


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Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing AG 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Massachusetts Institute of Technology| Car2go Group GmbHLeinfelden-EchterdingenGermany
  2. 2.Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyCambridgeUSA

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