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Regional Science Research and the Practice of Regional Economic Forecasting: Less Is Not More

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Regional Research Frontiers - Vol. 1

Part of the book series: Advances in Spatial Science ((ADVSPATIAL))

Abstract

Accurately forecasting regional economies for periods beyond a few months requires more than simple trend extrapolation. The forces that affect regional economies continually alter recent trends in the data. In addition, consumers of regional forecasts seek an understanding of the forces that underlie recent trends, which can be used in making sound policy or financial decisions. This essay argues for a greater role for research in forecasting regional economies. The central thesis is that current regional forecasting efforts need to be improved and supplemented with insights from regional science research. Major research areas of focus include dependence between sectors, dependence between regions, identifying demand from supply, labor market closures, incorporating a housing sector, the importance of occupational structure, benchmarking regional forecasts, sub-state forecasting and analysis, and industry trend analysis.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Rickman and Miller (2002) also compared the accuracy of using input-output information in mixed estimation against using the information to specify which sectors to use in other sector forecasting equations in Bayesian Model Averaging. Rey (1998) discusses strategies for integrating input-output information into regional econometric models.

  2. 2.

    See Fallah et al. (2014) for a review of the studies and for additional evidence.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Oklahoma State University, 338 Business Building, Stillwater, OK, 74078, USA

    Dan S. Rickman

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  1. Dan S. Rickman
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Correspondence to Dan S. Rickman .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University, Morgantown, West Virginia, USA

    Randall Jackson

  2. Division of Resource Economics and Management, Faculty Research Associate, Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University, Morgantown, West Virginia, USA

    Peter Schaeffer

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Rickman, D.S. (2017). Regional Science Research and the Practice of Regional Economic Forecasting: Less Is Not More. In: Jackson, R., Schaeffer, P. (eds) Regional Research Frontiers - Vol. 1. Advances in Spatial Science. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-50547-3_8

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