Abstract
Baltic Sea level variability is caused by different climatic and geological factors that render their understanding more difficult than for other areas of the Earth. Yet this understanding is crucial to predict with reliability the sea-level rise in the Baltic Sea that will be brought about by anthropogenic climate change. We illustrate this complexity by a few, in our opinion, important questions that ultimately are related to the estimation of long-term trends in the presence of land crust movements, to the heterogeneity of the Baltic sea-level response to atmospheric forcing, and the difficulty of identifying a sea-level rise acceleration in the observed records.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Ablain M, Cazenave A, Larnicol G, Balmaseda M, Cipollini P, Faugère Y, Fernandes MJ, Henry O, Johannessen JA, Knudsen P, Andersen O, Legeais J, Meyssignac B, Picot N, Roca M, Rudenko S, Scharffenberg MG, Stammer D, Timms G, Benveniste J (2015) Improved sea level record over the satellite altimetry era (1993–2010) from the Climate Change Initiative project. Ocean Sci 11:67–82. doi:10.5194/os-11-67-2015
BACC Author Team (2015) Second assessment of climate change for the Baltic Sea basin. Springer, Berlin
Bogdanov VI, Medvedev MY, Solodov VA, Trapeznikov YA, Troshkov GA, Trubitsina AA et al (2000) Mean monthly series of sea level observations (1777–1993) at Kronstadt gauge, Reports of the Finnish Geodetic Institute 2000, vol 1 pp 34
Cazenave M, Remy F (2011) Sea level and climate: measurements and causes of changes. WIREs Clim Change 2:647–662
Christiansen B, Schmith T, Thejll P (2010) A surrogate ensemble study of sea level reconstructions. J Clim 23:4306–4326
Church JA, Clark PU, Cazenave A, Gregory JM, Jevrejeva S, Levermann A, Merrifield MA, Milne GA, Nerem RS, Nunn PD, Payne AJ, Pfeffer WT, Stammer D, Unnikrishnan AS (2013) Sea level change. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Climate Change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge/New York
Ebusizaki W (1997) A method to estimate the statistical significance of a correlation when the data are serially correlated. J Clim 10:2147–2153
Ekman M (1996) A consistent map of the postglacial uplift of Fennoscandia. Terra Nova 8:158–165
Ekman M (2009) The changing level of the Baltic Sea during 300 years: a clue to understanding the earth. Summer Institute for Historical Geophysics, p 155
Ekman M, Mäkinen J (1996) Mean sea-surface topography in the Baltic Sea and its transition area to the North Sea: a geodetic solution and comparisons with oceanographic models. J Geophys Res 101:11993–11999
Hansen JM, AAgard T, Binderup M (2011) Absolute sea levels and isostatic changes of the eastern North Sea to central Baltic region during the last 900 years. Boreas 41:180. doi:10.1111/j.1502-3885.2011.00229.x
Hansson D, Eriksson C, Omstedt A, Chen D (2011) Reconstruction of river runoff to the Baltic Sea, AD 1500–1995. Int J Climatol 31:696–703
Hay CC, Morrow E, Kopp RE, Mitrovica JX (2015) Probabilistic reanalysis of twentieth-century sea-level rise. Nature 517:481–484
Hill EM, Davis JL, Tamisiea ME, Lidberg M (2010) Combination of geodetic observations and models for glacial isostatic adjustment fields in Fennoscandia. J Geophys Res 115:B07403. doi:10.1029/2009JB006967
Holgate SJ (2007) On the decadal rates of sea-level change during the 20th century. Geophys Res Lett 34:L01602
Holgate SJ, Matthews A, Woodworth PL, Rickards LJ, Tamisiea ME, Bradshaw E, Foden PR, Gordon KM, Jevrejeva S, Pugh J (2013) New data systems and products at the permanent service for mean sea level. J Coast Res 29(3):493–504. doi:10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-12-00175.1
Houston JR, Dean RG (2011) Sea-level acceleration based on US tide gauges and extensions of previous global-gauge analyses. J Coast Res 27:409. doi:10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-10-00157.1
Hünicke B, Zorita E (2008) Trends in the amplitude of Baltic Sea level annual cycle. Tellus 60A(1):154–164
Hünicke B, Zorita E, Soomere T, Madsen KS, Johansson M, Suursaar Ü (2015) “The BACC author team: second assessment of climate change for the Baltic Sea basin” (BACC II). Springer, Berlin, pp 155–185
Jensen J, Töppe A (1986) Composition and evaluation of original records of the gauge at Travemünde/Baltic Sea since 1826. Deutsche Gewässerkundliche Mitteilungen 30(4):99–107
Johansson JM, Davis JL, Scherneck HG, Milne GA, Vermeer M, Mitrovica JX, Bennet RA, Jonsson B, Elgered G, Elósegui P, Koivula H, Poutanen M, Rönnäng BO, Shapiro II (2002) Continuous GPS measurements of postglacial adjustment in Fennoscandia 1 Geodetic results. J Geophys Res 107(B8):2157 http://www.dx.doi.org/101029/2001JB000400
Kowalewska-Kalkowska H, Marks R (2011) 200 years of sea level measurements at the Swinoujscie tide gauge – an unique opportunity to study sea level variability at a regional scale. Scientific symposium 200 years of oldest continuous record of tide-gauge in Świnoujście, 18 November 2011, Świnoujście, Poland
Lambeck K, Smither C, Johnston P (1998) Sea-level change, postglacial rebound and mantle viscosity for northern Europe. Geophys J Int 134:102–144
Landerer FW, Jungclaus JH, Marotzke J (2007) Regional dynamic and steric sea level change in response to the IPCC-A1B scenario. J Phys Oceanogr 37:296–312
Madsen KS, Hoyer JL, Tscherning CC (2007) Near coastal satellite altimetry: sea surface height variability in the North Sea-Baltic Sea area. Geophys Res Lett 34(14):L14601
Meier MHE, Kjellström E, Graham LP (2006) Estimating uncertainties of projected Baltic Sea salinity in the late 21st century. Geophys Res Lett 33:L15705
Meier HEM, Rutgersson A, Reckermann M (2014) An earth system science program for the Baltic Sea region. Eos Trans AGU 95(13):109
Merrifield MA, Merrifield ST, Mitchum GT (2009) An anomalous recent acceleration of global sea level rise. J Clim 22:5772–5781
Milne GA, Mitrovica JX, Scherneck H-G, Davis JL, Johansson JM, Koivula H, Vermeer M (2004) Continuous GPS measurements of postglacial adjustment in Fennoscandia. 2. Modeling results. J Geophys Res 109:B02412
Mitrovica JX, Tamisiea ME, Davis JL, Milne GA (2001) Recent mass balance of polar ice sheets inferred from patterns of global sea-level change. Nature 409:1026–1029
Peltier WR (1998) Postglacial variations in the level of the sea: Implications for climate dynamics and solid-earth geophysics. Rev Geophys 36:603–689
Peltier WR (2004) Global glacial isostasy and the surface of the ice-age earth: the ICE-5G (VM2) model and GRACE. Annu Rev Earth Planet Sci 32:111–149. doi:10.1146/annurev.earth.32.082503.144359
Reckermann M, Langner J, Omstedt A, von Storch H, Keevallik S, Schneider B, Arheimer B, Meier HEM, Hünicke B (2011) BALTEX-An interdisciplinary research network for the Baltic Sea region. Environ Res Lett 6:045205
Richter A, Groh A, Dietrich R (2012) Geodetic observation of sea level change and crustal deformation in the Baltic Sea region. Phys Chem Earth 53–54:43–53
Rosentau R, Meyer M, Harff J, Dietrich R, Richter A (2007) Relative sea level change in the Baltic Sea since the littorina transgression. Z Geol Wiss 35:3–16
Stammer D, Cazenave A, Ponte RM, Tamisiea ME (2013) Contemporary regional sea level changes. Annu Rev Mar Sci 5:21–46
Stramska M (2013) Temporal variability of the Baltic Sea level based on satellite observations. Estuar Coast Shelf Sci 133:244–250
Tapley BD, Bettadpur S, Ries JC, Thompson PF, Watkins M (2004) GRACE measurements of mass variability in the earth system. Science 305:503–505
Woodworth PL, Gehrels WR, Nerem RS (2011) Nineteenth and twentieth century changes in sea level. Oceanography 24(2):80–93
Wöppelmann G, Letetrel C, Santamaria A, Bouin M-N, Collilieux X et al (2009) Rates of sea-level change over the past century in a geocentric reference frame. Geophys Res Lett 36:L12607
Acknowledgments
This work is part of the Baltic Earth program (www.baltic-earth.eu) and contributes to the Baltic Earth Grand Challenge ‘Sea-level dynamics’. The work benefited from regular discussions within the Research Area ‘Climate Sensitivity and Sea level’ of the Cluster of Excellence Integrated 794 Climate System Analysis and Prediction (CliSAP) funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2017 Springer International Publishing AG
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Hünicke, B., Zorita, E., von Storch, H. (2017). The Challenge of Baltic Sea Level Change. In: Harff, J., Furmańczyk, K., von Storch, H. (eds) Coastline Changes of the Baltic Sea from South to East. Coastal Research Library, vol 19. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-49894-2_3
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-49894-2_3
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-49892-8
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-49894-2
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)