Abstract
As Keynes pointed out, classical economics was similar to Euclidean geometry, but the reality is non-Euclidean. Now we have abundant evidence that market movements are nonlinear, non-equilibrium, and economic behavior is collective in nature. But mainstream economics and econometrics are still dominated by linear, equilibrium models of representative agent. A critical issue in economics is the selection criteria among competing math models. Economists may choose the preferred math representation by philosophical preference; or by mathematical beauty or computational simplicity. From historical lessons in physics, we choose the proper math by its empirical relevance, even at the costs of increasing mathematical dimensionality and computational complexity. Math representations can be judged by empirical features and historical implications. Recent historical events of financial crisis reveal the comparative advantage of the advanced math representation. Technology progress facilitates future advancements in mathematical representation and philosophical change in economic thinking.
For the Workshop on Finance, Mathematics, and Philosophy, Rome, June 12–13, 2014.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Prigogine, I.: Order Out of Chaos: Man’s New Dialogue with Nature, Bantam (1984)
Chen, P.: Economic Complexity and Equilibrium Illusion: Essays on Market Instability and Macro Vitality. Routledge, London (2010)
Mirowski, P.: More Heat than Light, Economics as Social Physics, Physics as Nature’s Economics. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (1989)
Fullbrook, Edward: A Guide to What’s Wrong with Economics. Anthem Press, London (2004)
Rosewell, B.: Economists ‘make assumptions’, BBC NEWS Interview One of the Ten Leading Economists Who Wrote a Letter to the Queen on too Much Math Training in Economics. http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid_8202000/8202828.stm. Accessed 15 Aug 2009
Krugman, P.: How Did Economists Get It So Wrong? The New York Times, Sept 2 (2009)
Chen, P.: Equilibrium illusion, economic complexity, and evolutionary foundation of economic analysis, Evol. Inst. Econ. Rev. 5(1), 81–127 (2008) (lbid.2, Chapter 2)
Becker, G.: A note on restaurant pricing and other examples of social influences on price. J. Polit. Econ. 99, 1106–1116 (1991)
Dessing, M.: Labor supply, the family and poverty: the s-shaped labor supply curve. J. Econ. Behav. Organ. 49(4), 433–458 (2002)
Fama, E.F.: Efficient capital markets: a review of theory and empirical work. J. Financ. 25(2), 384–433 (1970)
Sharp, W.F.: Capital asset prices: a theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk. J. Financ. 19(3), 425–442 (1964)
Mandelbrot, B.: The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices. J. Bus. 36(4), 394–419 (1963)
Gabaix, X., Gopikrishnan, P., Plerou, V., Eugene Stanley, H.: Institutional investors and stock market volatility. Q. J. Econ. 121(2): 461–504 (2006)
Jackwerth, J., Rubinstein, M.: Recovering probability distribution from option price. J. Financ. 51, 1611–1631 (1996)
Haken, H.: Synergetics, An Introduction. Springer, Berlin (1977)
Weidlich, W.: Ising model of public opinion. Collect. Phenom. 1, 51 (1972)
Chen, P.: Imitation, learning, and communication: central or polarized patterns in collective actions. In: Babloyantz, A. (ed.) Self-organization, Emerging Properties and Learning, pp. 279–286. Plenum, New York (1991) (lbid.2, Chapter 9)
Samuelson, P.A.: Interactions between the multiplier analysis and the principle of acceleration. Rev. Econ. Stat. 21, 75–78 (1939)
Frisch, R.: Propagation problems and impulse problems in dynamic economics. In: Economic Essays in Honour of Gustav Cassel, George Allen & Unwin, London (1933)
Chen, P.: Empirical and theoretical evidence of monetary chaos. Syst. Dyn. Rev. 4, 81–108 (1988) (lbid.2, Chapter 4)
Chen, P.: Microfoundations of macroeconomic fluctuations and the laws of probability theory: the principle of large numbers vs. rational expectations arbitrage. J. Econ. Behav. Organ 49, 327–344 (2002) (lbid.2, Chapter 13)
Samuelson, P.A.: Interactions between the multiplier analysis and the principle of acceleration. Rev. Econ. Stat. 21, 75–78 (1939)
Box, G.E.P., Jenkins, G.M.: Time Series Analysis, Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day, San Francisco (1970)
May, R.M.: Simple mathematical models with very complicated dynamics. Nature 261(5560), 459–467 (1976)
Day, R.H.: Irregular growth cycles. Am. Econ. Rev. 72, 404–414 (1982)
Henon, M.: A two dimensional mapping with a strange attractor. Commun. Math. Phys. 50, 69–77 (1976)
Benhabib, J.: Adaptive monetary policy and rational expectations. J. Econ. Theory 23, 261–266 (1980)
Lorenz, E.N.: Deterministic nonperiodic flow. J. Atmos. Sci. 20, 130–141 (1963)
Mackey, M.C., Glass, L.: Oscillations and chaos in physiological control systems. Science 197, 287–289 (1977)
Chen, P.: Empirical and theoretical evidence of monetary chaos. Syst. Dyn. Rev. 4, 81–108 (1988) (Ibid.2, Chapter 4)
Rössler, O.E.: An equation for continuous chaos. Phys. Lett. A 57, 397–398 (1976)
Samuelson, P.A.: Interactions between the multiplier analysis and the principle of acceleration. Rev. Econ. Stat. 21, 75–78 (1939)
Chen, P.: Empirical and theoretical evidence of monetary chaos. Syst. Dyn. Rev. 4, 81–108 (1988) (lbid.2, Chapter 4)
Nelson, C.R., Plosser, C.I.: Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series, some evidence and implications. J. Monet. Econ. 10, 139–162 (1982)
Chen, P.: Metabolic growth theory: market-share competition, learning uncertainty, and technology wavelets. J. Evol. Econ. 24(2), 239–262 (2014)
Schumpeter, J.A.: The Theory of Economic Development. Harvard University Press, Cambridge (1934)
Smith, A.: The Wealth of Nations, Liberty Classics, Indianapolis, Book I, Chapter III, Division of Labor is Limited by Market Extent (1776, 1981)
Chen, P.: Microfoundations of macroeconomic fluctuations and the laws of probability theory: the principle of large numbers vs. rational expectations arbitrage. J. Econ. Behav. Organ. 49, 327–344 (2002) (lbid.2, Chapter 13)
Malkiel, B.G.: A Random Walk Down Wall Street: Norton (2003)
Black, F., Scholes, M.: The pricing of options and corporate liabilities. J. Polit. Econ. 81, 637–654 (1973)
Reichl, L.E.: A Modern Course in Statistical Physics, 2nd edn. Wiley, New York (1998)
Chen, P.: Evolutionary Economic Dynamics: Persistent Business Cycles, Disruptive Technology, and the Trade-Off between Stability and Complexity. In: Dopfer, K. (ed.) The Evolutionary Foundations of Economics, Chapter 15, pp. 472–505. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (2005) (lbid.2, Chapter 3)
Zeng, W., Chen, P.: Volatility smile, relative deviation and trading strategies: a general diffusion model for stock returns based on nonlinear birth-death process. China Econ. Q. 7(4), 1415–1436 (2008)
Tang, Y., Chen, P.: Option pricing with interactive trend and volatility. Financ. Rev. 2, 1–11 (2010)
Frisch, R.: Propagation problems and impulse problems in dynamic economics. In: Economic Essays in Honour of Gustav Cassel, George Allen & Unwin, London (1933)
Uhlenbeck, G.E., Ornstein, L.S.: On the theory of brownian motion. Phys. Rev. 36(3), 823–841 (1930)
Wang, M.C., Unlenbeck, G.E.: On the theory of the Brownian Motion II. Rev. Mod. Phys. 17(2&3), 323–342 (1945)
Chen, P.: The Frisch Model of Business Cycles: A Failed Promise and New Alternatives, IC2 Working Paper. University of Texas at Austin (1998) (lbid.2, Chapter 12)
Hodrick, R.J., Prescott, E.C.: Post-War US. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation, Discussion Paper No. 451, Carnegie-Mellon University (1981) (J. Money Credit Bank. 29(1), 1–16 (1997))
Von Neumann, J., Kent, R.H., Bellinson, H.R., Hart, B.I.: The mean square successive difference. Ann. Math. Stat. 12(2), 153–162 (1941)
Chen, P.: Economic Complexity and Equilibrium Illusion: Essays on Market Instability and Macro Vitality, Chapter 2, p. 19. London: Routledge (2010)Â (Ibid.2, Chapter 2)
Chen, P.: A random walk or color chaos on the stock market?—Time-frequency analysis of S&P indexes. Stud. Nonlinear Dyn. Econ. 1(2), 87–103 (1996) (lbid.2, Chapter 6)
Schumpeter, J.A.: Business Cycles, A Theoretical, Historical, and Statistical Analysis of the Capitalist Process. McGraw-Hill, New York (1939)
Schrödinger, Enwin: What is Life?. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (1948)
Chen, P.: Microfoundations of macroeconomic fluctuations and the laws of probability theory: the principle of large numbers vs. rational expectations arbitrage. J. Econ. Behav. Organ. 49, 327–344 (2002) (lbid.2, Chapter 13)
Chen, P.: From an efficient market to a viable market: new thinking on reforming the international financial market. In: Garnaut, R., Song, L., Woo, W.T. (eds.). China’s New Place in a World in Crisis: Economic, Geopolitical and the Environmental Dimensions, Chapter 3, pp. 33–58. Australian National University E-Press and The Brookings Institution Press, Canberra, July 14 (2009) (lbid.2, Chapter 16)
Johnson, S.: The quiet coup. Atlantic 303(4), 46–56 (2009)
Tang, Y., Chen, P.: Transition probability, dynamic regimes, and the critical point of financial crisis. Phys. A (2015)
Tang, Y., Chen, P.: Time varying moments, regime switch, and crisis warning: the birth-death process with changing transition probability. Phys. A 404, 56–64 (2014)
Prigogine, I.: From Being to Becoming: Time and Complexity in the Physical Sciences. Freeman, San Francisco (1980)
Kuhn, T.: The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, Chicago (1962)
Foley, D.K.: Adam’s Fallacy: A Guide to Economic Theology. Harvard University Press (2008)
Chen, P.: Metabolic growth theory: market-share competition, learning uncertainty, and technology wavelets. J. Evol. Econ. 24(2), 239–262 (2014)
Friedman, M.: Essays in Positive Economics. University of Chicago Press, Chicago (1953)
Hendry, D.F.: Econometrics: Alchemy or Science?, 2nd edn. Oxford University Press, Oxford (2001)
Nicolis, G., Prigogine, I.: Self-organization in Nonequilibrium Systems: From Dissipative Structures to Order through Fluctuations. Wiley, New York (1977)
Soros, G.: Reflexivity in financial markets. In: The New Paradigm for Financial Markets: The Credit Crisis of 2008 and What it Means, 1st edn. PublicAffairs (2008)
Tang, Y., Chen, P.: Option pricing with interactive trend and volatility. Financ. Rev. 2, 1–11 (2010) (in Chinese)
Knight, F.H.: Risk, Uncertainty and Profit, Sentry Press, New York (1921)
Schumpeter, J.A.: Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy, 3rd edn. Harper, New York (1950)
Chen, P.: Nonequilibrium and nonlinearity: a bridge between the two cultures. In: Scott, G.P. (ed.) Time, Rhythms, and Chaos in the New Dialogue with Nature, Chapter 4, pp. 67–85. Iowa State University Press, Ames (1980)
Black, F., Scholes, M.: The pricing of options and corporate liabilities. J. Polit. Econ. 81, 637–654 (1973)
Acknowledgements
The author thanks Emiliano Ippoliti and participants of the Workshop on Math, Finance, and Philosophy at Rome on June 12–13, 2014. The author also thanks stimulating discussions with Yuji Aruka, Edward Fullbrook, James Galbraith, David Hendry, Justin Lin, Richard Nelson, Edmund Philps, Andreas Pyka, Hong Sheng, Zhengfu Shi, Joseph Stiglitz, Yinan Tang, Wolfgang Weidlich, and Elsner Wolfram.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2017 Springer International Publishing AG
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Chen, P. (2017). Mathematical Representation in Economics and Finance: Philosophical Preference, Mathematical Simplicity, and Empirical Relevance. In: Ippoliti, E., Chen, P. (eds) Methods and Finance. Studies in Applied Philosophy, Epistemology and Rational Ethics, vol 34. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-49872-0_2
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-49872-0_2
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-49871-3
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-49872-0
eBook Packages: Religion and PhilosophyPhilosophy and Religion (R0)