Abstract
As we have seen, the ‘basic method’ of constructing scenarios draws on three sources of input from the members of the scenario team, namely: (a) perspectives on the seemingly predetermined elements of the future (in relatively stable nations like Sweden, Singapore and New Zealand, this might be the proportion of the population in the 70+ age bracket over the next decade), (b) views on the critical uncertainties in the future—from the PESTEL framework—that have a potential and significant impact on the issue to hand, but where the nature and degree of this impact is not currently knowable; and (c) the possible actions of stakeholders—clients, customers, regulators, competitors, etc.—as they react to unfolding events to preserve and enhance their own interests. These inputs inform the various stages of the basic method and lay the foundations for constructing four scenarios. Within the various augmentations of the basic method that we have introduced before and will discuss in detail later, these same three sources remain central to the scenario process.
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Cairns, G., Wright, G. (2018). Incorporating Stakeholders into Scenarios. In: Scenario Thinking. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-49067-0_3
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