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Scenario Thinking pp 1–23Cite as

Palgrave Macmillan

Why Should the Individual and Organization Practice Scenario Thinking?

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Abstract

Scenarios have been used over decades by governments, businesses and non-governmental and not-for-profit organizations. Across each of these sectors, examples like the Singapore government, Shell Global and the UK National Council for Voluntary Organisations show the value attached to scenarios. In this age of uncertainty surrounding political, social, economic and environmental changes across the world, we see a clear need for all individuals and organizations to use scenario thinking. In the past year, as we complete our writing in early 2017, we have seen the unfolding of events that, as our later examples of scenario projects will illustrate, were found totally implausible, and even laughable, less than a year ago.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    For an overview of the Singapore government scenario programme, see: http://www.csf.gov.sg/our-work/our-approach.

  2. 2.

    Shell Global’s current publicly-available scenario outlines can be found at: http://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios.html.

  3. 3.

    For the UK National Council for Voluntary Organisations’ overview of the value of scenarios, see: https://knowhownonprofit.org/organisation/strategy/externalanalysis/scenario-planning.

  4. 4.

    A record of organizations that have appeared in the Fortune Global 500 over time can be sourced at: http://www.fortune.com.

  5. 5.

    For an overview of Xerox’s programme to develop ‘innovation at work’ and to explore ‘trends (that) are shaping the world of work’, visit: https://www.xerox.com/en-us/about.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. QUT Business School, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia

    George Cairns

  2. Strathclyde Business School, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK

    George Wright

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  1. George Cairns
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Cairns, G., Wright, G. (2018). Why Should the Individual and Organization Practice Scenario Thinking?. In: Scenario Thinking. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-49067-0_1

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