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Water, Energy & Food Sustainability in the Middle East pp 57–84Cite as

Water and Water Supply in The MENA: Less of the Same

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Abstract

The MENA is the region of the world likely to be the most highly and negatively impacted by climate change. The challenges of the coming century will be severe but also familiar to the policy-makers and technical experts of the region. The challenges have characterized the region throughout history. They differ now only in degree not in kind.

The challenges do not lie in technology: technological solutions are known and understood. The challenges lie in public policy which is opaque and poorly understood. The public policy challenge is compounded by the fact that four major Arab states—Libya, Yemen, Syria and Iraq—are no longer capable of coherent and comprehensive policy-making.

We ask, what are the parameters of ground water policy and management? What is the role of pricing in the allocation of water? How will states go about organizing their trade for virtual water and agricultural produce?

Policy change and innovation is often driven by crisis. Is that the case in the MENA? The major instance of crisis-driven change was evident in the 1970s and 1980s as the region’s states grappled with structural adjustment. By contrast the crises looming in the water and food sectors are familiar and can be met through familiar policies and without destroying existing political coalitions. Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and Saudi Arabia have all undertaken policy initiatives to re-prioritize water use in their economies.

Finally we review the three major transboundary water courses in the region: the Nile, the Jordan and the Tigris-Euphrates. The possibility of uncoerced cooperation in these basins is remote. We explore why that is the case. The best policies now are for riparians to pursue domestic programs of enhanced water efficiency that may stand as benchmarks once, if ever, serious inter-state negotiations begin.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    This paper draws on Waterbury (2013, 2014).

  2. 2.

    AFED has published a series of reports that outline the technical challenges and solutions in detail. See especially AFED 2009, 2014.

  3. 3.

    A model of an expert policy brief with detailed policy recommendations, including both positive and negative impacts, can be found in Bricheri-Colombi (2011).

  4. 4.

    ICARDA is the International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas and a member of the world-wide chain of research centers known as CGIAR: the Consortium of International Agricultural Research Centers.

  5. 5.

    Arab states may engage in mitigation for reasons indirectly related to global warming itself. Countries of the GCC are moving into renewable energy in order to conserve petroleum for export. The substitution effect may be the most pronounced in energy-intensive desalination plants. Arab oil importers were incentivized to move into renewables when petroleum prices rose sharply at the beginning of the new millennium.

  6. 6.

    The border of Mauritania, a member of the Arab League of States, and Senegal is formed by the Senegal River which arises in the Guinea highlands. In calculating Mauritania’s per cap. Annual water resources the flow of the Senegal is used in the numerator giving that otherwise arid country the highest per cap. Average in the region—3147 m3 in 2011 as opposed to Iraq’s 2666 m3.

  7. 7.

    Brazil’s National System of Protected Areas was established in 2000 after more than a decade of debate in the Congress, building on public consultation across society and academia and representing a major contribution toward Brazil’s international environmental commitments, including UN conventions on biological diversity and climate change. The authors go on to say that the NSPA is being dismantled without public debate or review and despite substantial protest (Gibbs et al. 2015).

  8. 8.

    We need to keep in mind that some of the most powerful sources of financial leverage in the region today come from within the region, principally the GCC led by Saudi Arabia. Those countries are at best ambivalent about policies to move away from petroleum but have no reason to oppose greater efficiency in the use of water. Whatever their preferences, the current sharp drop in world petroleum prices may reduce their leverage.

  9. 9.

    I believe it is a matter of coincidence and not of structure that the KSA, Jordan and Morocco are all monarchies and ready to take bold action in agricultural policy.

  10. 10.

    For example, corn and sugar cane have a carbon dioxide concentrating mechanism called C4 photosynthesis. This could be bred into crops like wheat and rice to increase their water efficiency (Michalak and Field 2015:13).

  11. 11.

    In the 2008 Maroc Plan Vert (see Morocco, 2008) it is planned to convert 500,000 ha.s to sprinkler irrigation, with another 200,000 to be added in a later phase.

  12. 12.

    Loudyi and Oubalkace (2015) describe the allocation system in Morocco as it is. “The allocation of water resources between different competing, and most often conflicting, uses is done at the global level through the Master Plan of Integrated Water Resources Management (PDAIRE) and the National Water Plan (PNE).

    When water rights are not applicable (emphasis added), in practice and on a larger scale, the distribution between same-category users follows the rule of “first come, first served”, particularly for groundwater. Despite the regime of water allocation and the obligation to respect the requirements of the PDAIRE, and in the absence of strict control, this practice leads to reducing the responsibility/accountability of water users who prefer to serve their immediate individual interests over the collective and long-term interests of their community. This also causes the over-exploitation of groundwater and widens the gap between traditional uses of poor peasants and modern uses of rich farmers”.

  13. 13.

    There appears to be more certainty about diminished rainfall in the Tigris-Euphrates than in the Nile basin where estimates vary. Inter alia see Jeuland and Whittington 2014.

  14. 14.

    in 2010 the United Nations International Law Commission drafted articles for a convention governing trans-boundary aquifers and in December 2015 the UN General Assembly approved a draft. http://www.unesco.org/water/news/transboundary_aquifers.shtml

    In 2013, under the auspices of the IAEA and the UNDP, representatives of Egypt, Sudan, Chad and Libya adopted an action program for the Nubian sandstone aquifer (IAEA 2013). There has been no follow up on this initiative, and Libya is no longer an effective participant.

  15. 15.

    In 1964 Israel intervened militarily very early to thwart Syrian efforts to divert the headwaters of the Jordan thereby impeding Israel’s National Water Carrier scheme. To my knowledge this is the only instance of inter-state armed conflict over water in the region, although some might claim that Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon in 1980 was aimed at gaining control of the Litani River.

  16. 16.

    The three riparians have even failed to establish a joint technical committee to exchange basic data and carry out analysis of projects and alternative uses. Since 1920 the establishment of a technical water- management committee has been agreed three times in principle but has never materialized in an effective form (Shamout 2015).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. American University of Beirut, Beirut, Lebanon

    John Waterbury

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  1. John Waterbury
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Correspondence to John Waterbury .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Chemical and Biological Engineering, Illinois Institute of Technology, Chicago, Illinois, USA

    Sohail Murad

  2. Department of Biology, American University of Beirut, Beirut, Lebanon

    Elias Baydoun

  3. Faculty of Agricultural and Food Sciences, American University of Beirut, Beirut, Lebanon

    Nuhad Daghir

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Waterbury, J. (2017). Water and Water Supply in The MENA: Less of the Same. In: Murad, S., Baydoun, E., Daghir, N. (eds) Water, Energy & Food Sustainability in the Middle East. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-48920-9_4

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