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Civilization as a Cyclical Human Process

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An Economic Inquiry into the Nonlinear Behaviors of Nations

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Abstract

Most, if not all, natural disasters that occur stochastically do not have any positive effects on human civilization; in contrast, it was the cyclical natural phenomena and disasters that helped humans to invent and advance their civilizations. Research on cycles and cycle-like phenomena has never stopped since ancient times, and it has become the most dynamic part of a nonlinear civilization. In general, the most significant research progress was achieved during two major periods. The first period started at the early stage of civilizations, in which human beings had a crying need to develop a calendar. The second period lasted from the late nineteenth century till the end of the Cold War, with the interwar period being the most productive years of research.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Translated by author, based on the original Chinese text of Ban (AD 82).

  2. 2.

    See Pankenier (2013, 290–5) for a more detailed account of these archeological finds.

  3. 3.

    Cited from Sima (91 BC, vol. 27)—translated by author, based on the original Chinese text.

  4. 4.

    Complied by author, based on various sources in Chinese. Note that even though the historical events reported here have been real, the inaccuracy of some, if not all, of these planetary events may exist.

  5. 5.

    This can easily be obtained by applying the standard gravity model since the masses of and the distances between all the five planets and the moon and Earth are known.

  6. 6.

    For more detailed analyses of some ancient hydraulic civilizations, see, among others, Butzer (1976) and Clayton and Dent (1973).

  7. 7.

    Flooding reached Aswan about a week earlier than Cairo, and Luxor 5–6 days earlier than Cairo. Typical heights of flood were 45 feet (13.7 m) at Aswan, 38 feet (11.6 m) at Luxor (and Thebes) and 25 feet (7.6 m) at Cairo (Budge 1895, 45–9).

  8. 8.

    See Nicholson (2000, 514, 577, and 630) for a more detailed account.

  9. 9.

    See Bower (January 27, 2011) and Wells and Read (2002, 138–40).

  10. 10.

    Cited from Butzer (1976, 9, 28–9, 56).

  11. 11.

    Even today, we can still find wetlands in the deltas of the Indus, the Euphrates, the Tigris, and the Yellow rivers.

  12. 12.

    The term “natural” has consequently been disputed because the events simply are not hazards or disasters without human involvement.

  13. 13.

    The heliacal rising of Sothis returned to the same point in the calendar every 1460 years (a period called the Sothic cycle). The difference between a seasonal year and a civil year was therefore 365 days in 1460 years, or one day in four years. Similarly, the Egyptians were aware that 309 lunations nearly equaled 9125 days, or 25 Egyptian years, which was later used in the construction of a secondary lunar calendar that did not depend on observations (Parker 1950, 13–32).

  14. 14.

    Literature in this regard would include Worsher (1985), Gelles (2000), and Scarborough (2003).

  15. 15.

    Even today, several Maya groups in Guatemala, including the K’iche’, Q’eqchi’, and Kaqchikel, and the Mixe people of Oaxaca, continue using modernized forms of the Mesoamerican calendar.

  16. 16.

    See Wu (1982, 66–7 and 467) for a more detailed account.

  17. 17.

    Source: Author based on miscellaneous news clippings.

  18. 18.

    It does, however, stay constant with respect to other phenomena, notably tides, which are vital to people living in coastal areas.

  19. 19.

    See Meeus and Savoie (1992) and Urban and Kenneth Seidelmann (2012, 595).

  20. 20.

    Employing spectral analysis, Korotayev and Tsirel (2010) confirmed the presence of the Juglar cycle in world GDP dynamics.

  21. 21.

    See, for example, Rosen et al. (1994).

  22. 22.

    See, for example, Kuznets (1930), Forrester (1977, 107–21), and Korotayev and Tsirel (2010).

  23. 23.

    The English version of this book, titled Long Wave Cycle, was published in 1984 (Kondratieff 1984).

  24. 24.

    See Schumpeter (2005) and Keklik (2003).

  25. 25.

    See Rosenberg (1994, 62–84).

  26. 26.

    See Meadows et al. (1972, 1992, 2004) for more details.

  27. 27.

    Some of the works involving long cycle research and technology include Marchetti (1986), Ayres (1989), and Tylecote (1991).

  28. 28.

    This theory was developed by Irving Fisher following the Wall Street Crash of 1929 and the ensuing Great Depression. See, for example, Minsky (1992) and Keen (1995).

  29. 29.

    See Mansfield (1983).

  30. 30.

    Spectral analysis is a technique that is used in the fields of electrical engineering for analyzing electrical circuits and radio waves to deconstruct a complex signal to determine the main frequencies and their relative contribution.

  31. 31.

    Other, similar research includes Freeman and Louçã (2001) and Carlota Perez (2002). Perez (2002) places the phases on a logistic or S-curve, with the following labels: beginning of a technological era as irruption, the ascent as frenzy, the rapid build-out as synergy, and the completion as maturity.

  32. 32.

    See Vahrenholt and Lüning (2015) for more details.

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    Rongxing Guo

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Guo, R. (2017). Civilization as a Cyclical Human Process. In: An Economic Inquiry into the Nonlinear Behaviors of Nations. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-48772-4_6

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