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Archival Evidence of Secular Changes in Georgia Hurricanes: 1750–2012

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Hurricanes and Climate Change

Abstract

North Atlantic hurricanes present the greatest recurring meteorological hazard along the southern and eastern shores of the USA. Since the late 1800s, in contrast to much of the Southeastern USA, the Georgia coast has experienced infrequent hurricane landfalls, particularly in recent decades. As a result, coastal storm preparedness complacency appears to be rampant along the Georgia coastline. Both local and state governments were unprepared for shadow evacuation during Hurricane Floyd in 1999. The study described here includes an examination of temporal and spatial trends in hurricane landfall along the Georgia coast from 1750 to 2012. Since 1750, 18 of the 24 recorded hurricanes that made landfall along the Georgia coast occurred between 1801 and 1900, yet the hurricane intensities have declined since 1851. Most critically our data establishes that the mean location of landfall along the Georgia coast has shifted 60 km north and hence closer to Savannah. Future efforts to re-characterize hurricane surge zones and improve evacuation infrastructure along the Georgia coast must reevaluate this threat.

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Acknowledgments

This project was funded by the Georgia Sea Grant, sub-award RR746-063/4941006.

We acknowledge and thank Taryn Mason, Steven LaVoie, and Walter Fraser Jr. for their important contributions to this study. We would also like to thank Sarah Keihany and Damon Mullis for their significant work in collecting the historical (pre-1851) data for this project.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geology and Geography, Georgia Southern University, Statesboro, GA, 30460, USA

    Mark R. Welford

  2. Department of Health and Human Performance, College of Charleston, Charleston, SC, USA

    Brian H. Bossak

  3. NOAA National Weather Service Forecast Office, San Diego, CA, 92127, USA

    Ethan J. Gibney

Authors
  1. Mark R. Welford
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  2. Brian H. Bossak
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  3. Ethan J. Gibney
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Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. School of Geosciences, University of South Florida, Tampa, Florida, USA

    Jennifer M. Collins

  2. School of Earth Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia

    Kevin Walsh

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Welford, M.R., Bossak, B.H., Gibney, E.J. (2017). Archival Evidence of Secular Changes in Georgia Hurricanes: 1750–2012. In: Collins, J., Walsh, K. (eds) Hurricanes and Climate Change. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-47594-3_2

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