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Advances in Social Simulation 2015 pp 217–230Cite as

A Spatially Explicit Agent-Based Model of the Diffusion of Green Electricity: Model Setup and Retrodictive Validation

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Part of the book series: Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing ((AISC,volume 528))

Abstract

The purpose of this chapter is to propose and illustrate a validation procedure for a spatially explicit ABM of the diffusion of green electricity tariffs in the German electricity market. We focus on two notions of model validity: We report on structural validity by describing the model setup and its empirical and theoretical grounding. Then we challenge simulation results with a rich spatially explicit historical customer data set thus focusing on retrodictive validity. In particular the latter validation exercise can be prototypic for the class of spatially explicit diffusion ABMs in data-rich domains because it systematically scrutinises validity on different levels of agent aggregation.

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Acknowledgements

The research presented in this chapter was partly funded by the German Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) under contract no 01UV1003A, “Scenarios of Perception and Reaction to Adaptation (SPREAD)”.

Special thanks go to Ramón Briegel for model design and implementation, and Angelika Gellrich and Sascha Holzhauer for carrying through parts of the empirical research reported here.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel, Germany

    Friedrich Krebs & Andreas Ernst

Authors
  1. Friedrich Krebs
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  2. Andreas Ernst
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Friedrich Krebs .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. University College Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands

    Wander Jager

  2. Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Institute of Artificial Intelligence, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands

    Rineke Verbrugge

  3. Faculty for Social and Behavioural Sciences, Department of Sociology, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands

    Andreas Flache

  4. Faculty of Spatial Sciences, Department of Spatial Planning and Environment, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands

    Gert de Roo

  5. Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands

    Lex Hoogduin

  6. Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Department of Behavioural Ecology and Self-organisation, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands

    Charlotte Hemelrijk

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Krebs, F., Ernst, A. (2017). A Spatially Explicit Agent-Based Model of the Diffusion of Green Electricity: Model Setup and Retrodictive Validation. In: Jager, W., Verbrugge, R., Flache, A., de Roo, G., Hoogduin, L., Hemelrijk, C. (eds) Advances in Social Simulation 2015. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol 528. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-47253-9_19

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-47253-9_19

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  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-319-47252-2

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-319-47253-9

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