Abstract
The objective of this study is to determine which demographical and financial features affect consumer credits risks of Turkish households aftermath the 2008 global financial crisis. Our analyses are built on the data from Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) on an unbalanced panel of 13,979 households between the years 2008 and 2012. We apply our estimations on two stages. First we use logistic regressions to detect which features are likely to lead to default. Second we make robustness test with Survival Cox Analysis and evaluate the impacts of these features again. Our verified results show that the features that affect the default are; household income, volatility of the household income, being a home owner, age, education and gender.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Agarwal S, Hadzic M, Yildirim Y (2015) Consumption response to credit tightening policy: evidence from Turkey. SSRN 2569584
Anbar A, Eker M (2009) Bireysel Yatırımcıların Finansal Risk Algılamalarını Etkileyen Demografik ve Sosyoekonomik Faktörler. Zonguldak Karaelmas Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi 5(9):129–150
Ardehali PH (2004) Assessing financial risk tolerance of portfolio investors using data envelopment analysis. Master’s Thesis, Canada
Arslan Ö, Karan MB (2010) Consumer credit risk characteristics: understanding income and expense differentials. Emerg Market Financ Trade 46(2):20–37
Bali Swain R (2008) The demand and supply of credit for households. Appl Econ 39(21):2681–2692
Bajtelsmit VL, Bernasek A (1996) Why do women invest differently than men? Financ Counsel Plann 7:1–10
Bank Association of Turkey (2014) Banks in Turkey 2013. Publication number 305. https://www.tbb.org.tr/en/Content/Upload/Dokuman/133/Banks_in_Turkey_2013.pdf
Blöchlinger A, Leippold M (2006) Economic benefit of powerful credit scoring. J Bank Financ 30(3):851–873
Cutts AC, Van Order RA, Zorn PM (2000) Lemons with a twist: the role of the secondary market in market evolution. In: Annual ASSA/AREUEA Meetings, Boston, MA, January
Duman A (2013) Household debt in Turkey: the critical threshold for the next crisis. Paper for ECOMOD
Embrey LL, Fox JJ (1997) Gender differences in the investment decision-making process. Financ Counsel Plann 8(2):33–40
Getter DE (2006) Consumer credit risk and pricing. J Consum Aff 40(1):41–63
Grable JE, Lytton RH (1999) Financial risk tolerance revisited: the development of a risk assessment instrument. Financ Serv Rev 8(3):163–181
Hallahan TA, Faff RW, McKenzie M (2003) An exploratory investigation of the relation between risk tolerance scores and demographic characteristics. J Multinatl Financ Manag 13(4–5):483–502
Harrison GW, Lau MI, Rutstrom EE (2007) Estimating risk attitudes in Denmark: a field experiment. Scand J Econ 109(2):341–368
Karan MB, Arslan Ö (2008) Consumer credit risk factors of Turkish households. Bank Bank Syst 3(1):39–48
Küçüktalasli Ö, Arslan-Ayaydin Ö, Karan MB (2012) Quality in the financial sector from the perspective of consumer credits by socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. Total Qual Manag Bus Excel 23(11–12):1453–1463
Livshits I, MacGee J, Tertilt M (2014) The democratization of credit and the rise in consumer bankruptcies. Mimeo
Lyons AC (2003) How credit access has changed over time for US households. J Consum Aff 37(2):231–255
Perraudin WR, Sorensen BE (1992) The credit-constrained consumer: an empirical study of demand and supply in the loan market. J Bus Econ Stat 10(2):179–192
Schubert R, Gysler M, Brown M, Brachinger HW (2000) Gender specific attitudes towards risk and ambiguity: an experimental investigation. Working Paper, Center for Economic Research, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich
Sultana ST, Pardhasaradhi S (2011) An empirical investigation of the relation between risk tolerance and socioeconomic characteristics of individual investors. Adv Manag 4(10):60–65
Tabachnick BG, Fidell LS (2013) Using multivariate statistics, 6th edn. Pearson, Boston
Wagner J (2011) An empirical analysis linking a person’s financial risk tolerance and financial literacy to financial behaviors. University of Nebraska Lincoln, Lincoln, NE
Wang N, Brown DG, An L, Yang S, Ligmann-Zielinska A (2013) Comparative performance of logistic regression and survival analysis for detecting spatial predictors of land use change. Int J Geogr Inform Sci 27(10):1960–1982
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2017 Springer International Publishing AG
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Kaya, M., Arslan-Ayaydin, Ö., Karan, M.B. (2017). Credit Risk Evaluation of Turkish Households Aftermath the 2008 Financial Crisis. In: Hacioğlu, Ü., Dinçer, H. (eds) Global Financial Crisis and Its Ramifications on Capital Markets. Contributions to Economics. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-47021-4_29
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-47021-4_29
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-47020-7
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-47021-4
eBook Packages: Economics and FinanceEconomics and Finance (R0)