Abstract
A strong fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africaf could pave the way for a demographic transition on the continent that would open a demographic window of opportunity. However, it has been suggested that the demographic transition and increasing relative youth proportions are neither ‘good’ nor ‘bad’ in themselves, and that under unfavorable political and economic conditions, ‘youth bulge s’ may be a curse rather than a blessing, increasing the risk of armed conflict. We show that the demographic transition seems to come later in African conflict countries south of the Sahara than to those who have not experienced conflict. This chapter will explore these two scenarios, and how different factors, such as education, fertility and health, ethnic distribution, migration and, urbanization, can affect the ways in which demographic change impacts the risk of conflict.
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Notes
- 1.
The demographic transition is a stylized presentation of the change from high fertility and mortality societies with poorly developed health institutions, to low mortality and eventually low fertility regimes. As the fertility decline will only happen after child mortality has dropped significantly, the transition period is associated with strong population growth before people adjust fertility behavior to the new, lower mortality level.
- 2.
‘Youth bulges’ are measured as cohorts aged 15–24 as a share of the total adult (15+) population.
- 3.
Calculated as (0–14and 65+)/(15–64) by the UN Population Division based on data from 2000. The UN supply data for every fifth year from 1950 to 2010, the years in-between have been interpolated and extrapolated.
- 4.
The support ratio measures the balance between the potential labor force population and young- and old-age dependents. It is defined as the number of people aged 15–64 years per 100 people aged 0–14 and 65+.
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Rustad, S.A., Østby, G., Urdal, H. (2017). Conflicts and the Demographic Transition: Economic Opportunity or Disaster?. In: Groth, H., May, J. (eds) Africa's Population: In Search of a Demographic Dividend. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-46889-1_30
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