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African Fertility Changes

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Africa's Population: In Search of a Demographic Dividend

Abstract

Fertility in sub-Saharan Africa has been the highest in the world for several decades. Its decline started much later than in other regions and the pace of fertility changes has also been slower overall. As of 2010, African women had on average around 5.5 children, more than twice the fertility levels in Asia and in Latin America . The slow and uncertain transitions in sub-Saharan Africa result from low social and economic developments, high mortality, preferences for large families, and limited investments in family planning programs. Overall, contraceptive use has increased slowly, and changes in age at marriage have also had limited impact on fertility declines, whereas the fertility-inhibiting effects of postpartum practices have eroded and contributed to slow transition or increasing fertility. Nevertheless, rapid changes in a few countries and low fertility among urban educated women in most countries demonstrate that low fertility can be attained with improvements in social and economic conditions and provision of family planning services.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    The most recent estimates used in this paper refer to the 2005–2009 period. Estimates for the 2010–2014 period are not used as they are less likely to rely on survey and census data collected in this period, and may to a larger extent reflect assumptions about fertility changes.

  2. 2.

    Compared to its highest fertility level since 1950.

  3. 3.

    Trends in Cameroon , as in Ghana, differ according to the source of data. Uncorrected estimates from DHS suggest that fertility decline in Cameroon stalled in the late 1990s, a trend that corrected estimates from the United Nations Population Division do not show.

  4. 4.

    According to the 2015 World Population Prospects, fertility decline has resumed in Kenya.

  5. 5.

    The fertility estimates in the 1998 Ghana DHS appear to have been underestimated for various reasons, leading to an apparent stall between the late 1990s and the early 2000s. Reconstructed trends based on combining data from successive surveys suggest there was no stall (Machiyama 2010; Schoumaker 2014).

  6. 6.

    For instance, Kenya’s high fertility in the 1970s (around eight children per woman) was partly due to relatively shorter postpartum non-susceptible periods compared to other countries (Bongaarts et al. 1984).

  7. 7.

    The fertility inhibiting effect of the non-susceptible period of length is estimated as 1−20/(18.5+i) (Jolly and Gribble 1993). A duration of 12 months corresponds roughly to a 35% reduction in fertility.

  8. 8.

    Gonorrhea was thought to be the major cause of infertility in these regions (Frank 1983).

  9. 9.

    Between 30% and 50% of married women are in polygynous union in many Western and Central African countries; polygyny is less widespread in Eastern and Southern Africa, but still a significant phenomenon.

  10. 10.

    Traditional methods, such as periodic abstinence and withdrawal, are also used by substantial numbers of women in some countries (e.g., Congo, Gabon, Cameroon ).

  11. 11.

    Sub-Saharan countries in the study are Cameroon , Ghana, Kenya, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe is the only country with a total abortion rate well below one child .

  12. 12.

    In more than half of the countries, they represent the majority of women (up to 80% in Niger); in contrast, the share of urban educated women is greater than 20% in only ten countries (as in Cameroon , Ghana, and Zimbabwe, see Table 1).

  13. 13.

    Rwanda, Zimbabwe, Lesotho, Namibia , Swaziland and to a lesser extent Ghana and Kenya.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Demographic Research, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium

    Bruno Schoumaker

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  1. Bruno Schoumaker
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Correspondence to Bruno Schoumaker .

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  1. World Demographic & Ageing Forum (WDA Forum), St. Gallen, Switzerland

    Hans Groth

  2. Population Reference Bureau (PRB), Washington, DC, USA

    John F. May

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Schoumaker, B. (2017). African Fertility Changes. In: Groth, H., May, J. (eds) Africa's Population: In Search of a Demographic Dividend. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-46889-1_13

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-46889-1_13

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