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Future Projection of Rainfall by Statistical Downscaling Method in a Part of Central India

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Environment and Earth Observation

Part of the book series: Springer Remote Sensing/Photogrammetry ((SPRINGERREMO))

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Abstract

Rainfall is one of the important parameters of climate and hydrological studies. Distribution and intensity of the rainfall vary from place to place. The present study involves prediction of future rainfall using past historical data. The study area is a part of the Narmada river basin in the central part of India. Three rainfall stations (Betul, Hoshangabad and Raisen) are taken for this study. Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) has been applied to estimate the future rainfall using General Circulation Model (GCM). Observed data (rainfall) and National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) data are used from 1961 to 2001. Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HADCM3) of A2 emission scenario is also used during 1961–2099. The period of calibration and validation of the model is 1961–1989 and 1990–2001, respectively. The performance of the downscaling technique is estimated by Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Normalized Mean Square error (NMSE) and Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient (NASH) and Correlation Coefficient (CC) methods. The bias correction technique has been applied in this study. The prediction results are illustrated for the period of 2020s, 2050s and 2080s time scale. The results of future rainfall project increasing trend in three different stations.

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Acknowledgments

The authors are thankful to the Water Portal for the rainfall data and to the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) for providing the GCM and NCEP Data.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Water Resources Development and Management, Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee, India

    Sananda Kundu, Deepak Khare & Arun Mondal

Authors
  1. Sananda Kundu
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  2. Deepak Khare
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  3. Arun Mondal
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Sananda Kundu .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. School of Oceanographic Studies, Jadavpur University , Kolkata, India

    S. Hazra

  2. School of Oceanographic Studies, Jadavpur University, Kolkata, West Bengal, India

    A. Mukhopadhyay

  3. Department of Science and Technology , Kolkata, West Bengal, India

    A. R. Ghosh

  4. Marine and Atmospheric Studies, Indian Space Research Organisation, Dehradun, India

    D. Mitra

  5. Indian Space Research Organisation, National Remote Sensing Centre, Hyderabad, India

    V. K. Dadhwal

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Kundu, S., Khare, D., Mondal, A. (2017). Future Projection of Rainfall by Statistical Downscaling Method in a Part of Central India. In: Hazra, S., Mukhopadhyay, A., Ghosh, A., Mitra, D., Dadhwal, V. (eds) Environment and Earth Observation. Springer Remote Sensing/Photogrammetry. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-46010-9_4

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