Abstract
The focus of this chapter is the development of cleavage voting over time. The chapter opens by discussing the theoretical effects as to why and how the four cleavages matter for voting behaviour. This is followed by a presentation of empirical findings from both the international and Swiss-specific literature. Afterwards the empirical study – the testing of the evolution of cleavage voting in Switzerland – is described. This begins with a data and method section in which the used datasets, the exact operationalisation of variables and the statistical models are presented in detail. The subsequent empirical analysis of voting patterns covers ten elections and 40 years. For each cleavage a descriptive discussion of voting behaviour is followed by more sophisticated statistical analyses on the actual impact of cleavages over time and in comparison to each other. In addition to examining the development of cleavage strength, the analysis also tackles the underlying reasons for this development, namely changes due to behavioural or structural effects. The conclusion summarizes the most important findings and offers explanations for the longitudinal trends found.
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Notes
- 1.
However, I will use different measures for voting behaviour throughout the thesis.
- 2.
I use both expressions – influence and impact – interchangeably.
- 3.
A similar reasoning comes from Raymond (2011). He argues that religion has powerful indirect effects through political values. In the context of the funnel of causality in the Michigan model, these political values are more proximate to vote choice than religion is. Thus, religion might sometimes appear to have lost in importance (when controlling for more proximate values), but this is only because the religious effect works indirectly through political values.
- 4.
One possibility could be that although religion plays a less important role in social life, religion is still relevant for political attitudes and behaviour (for more detailed arguments see Geser 1997, 25f.).
- 5.
An alternative view would be that denomination and church attendance are not two parts of the same religious cleavage, but represent two different types of religious cleavages. Wolf (1996) discusses this possibility for Germany where he argues that a denominational cleavage is replaced by a religious (“religiös”) cleavage (the degree of religiousness measured e.g. by church attendance). In such an interpretation, denomination and religiosity would stand next to each other as two structural elements of separate cleavages instead of representing the structural and normative element of only one common religious cleavage.
- 6.
Flanagan and Lee (2003) link the developments in religious belief with the contemporary so-called “culture wars”. In their view, the opposition between believing and secular persons is part of an authoritarian-libertarian opposition. This is another example of how religion is still important today. The observable conflict, however, is not directly related to religious characteristics, religion works rather as a background variable for a secondary conflict.
- 7.
However, one reason for this finding may also be the weak or inadequate measure of the class cleavage.
- 8.
A typical measure of social class would thus be the household, whereas the individual is rather linked to class location (Oesch 2008, 332).
- 9.
Evans and Mills (1998, 90) define this modern concept of social class as the “most parsimonious way to account for the empirically observable association between job attributes.”
- 10.
See also the developments linked to the reformulation of the class cleavage in the context of globalisation discussed in Sect. 2.2.3.
- 11.
This idea follows the study of Oesch and Rennwald (2010a) who include both the measures of class location and normative attitudes in one model. In this context, the authors show that economic and cultural attitudes play a strong role in a class-based cleavage between the New Left and Populist Right in Switzerland. However, the authors also acknowledge that despite the strong impact of the normative variables on party choice, these intermediary variables cannot explain all found class differences.
- 12.
Since one may argue whether a class-based abstention fits into the cleavage concept used here, I refrain from using the term “cleavage” and use the more general term of “division”.
- 13.
Converse (1958, 397–398) already argued that “the impact of status on vote decision is dependent on the degree to which the political parties proffer clear and equally polarised policy alternatives”.
- 14.
However, even in case some specific class interests become latent (e.g. workers’ interests), this does not mean that such interests no longer exist (Hout et al. 1993).
- 15.
This pattern has weakened in the last years, so that the major parties are nowadays present in all language regions. The parties’ size or success, though, still differs between regions. Additionally, new (nation-wide) parties like the BDP and GLP again show patterns of regional strongholds in the Swiss-German cantons, at least for the moment.
- 16.
- 17.
Liberale Partei der Schweiz
- 18.
Christlich-soziale Partei
- 19.
The inclusion of “other” and/or abstention as additional categories does not change the pattern of the longitudinal trend in a significant way. As both of these categories comprise very heterogeneous groups of respondents, the overall effect of the respective cleavage would look weaker. The trend, however, stays the same with or without including the additional categories.
- 20.
Using a more detailed four category scheme distinguishing other and no denomination leads to very similar results (at least for the analyses using data from 1995 onwards that would allow such a more detailed coding).
- 21.
To do so I merged the variables containing the ISCO coding from the individual files 1971 and 1975 with the cumulative file. For the recoding I followed Rennwald (2014) and thank her for providing me with the corresponding syntaxes.
- 22.
The exact definition contains some more conditions and can be retrieved from the BfS homepage (https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/de/home/statistiken/querschnittsthemen/raeumliche-analysen/raeumliche-gliederungen/analyseregionen.html).
- 23.
For instance, this traditional dichotomous coding would group a person living in Zürich city together with a person from Bever, which is a very small village in Graubünden with less than 1000 inhabitants and with the closest bigger “city” being St. Moritz with also only around 5000 inhabitants. Obviously, a person living in either of the two faces very different problems and challenges. The political demands for such persons are thus very different, which presumably leads to different electoral decisions.In December 2014 the Bfs adapted its definition of an agglomeration and also defined new types of urban areas, which by coincidence affects the example taken here of St. Moritz. Thus, the Bfs has also realised the problem with grouping certain cities like Zürich and St. Moritz into one category. The results shown here, though, are still based on the Bfs coding from 2000 in connection with my own recodings.
- 24.
For more details about the mentioned codings and definitions provided by the Bfs see https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/de/home/statistiken/querschnittsthemen/raeumliche-analysen/raeumliche-gliederungen/raeumliche-typologien.html (Please pay attention to the changes in definitions published in 2014.).
- 25.
In 1971 and 1975 the original answer category of “secondaire inférieur” was coded as compulsory education (low education). Following the coding in Lachat (2007a) I recoded this category into a medium level of education. If the original coding were maintained, in 1971 for instance over 80 % of the respondents would have a low education. Due to the substantially varying original answers in the separate data files the recoding into the nine categories is already difficult. The recoding into three levels with the mentioned adaptation for 1971 and 1975 is thus a good trade-off to represent basic differences in education.
- 26.
- 27.
For the calculation I use the Stata program cindexw, which is an extended version of cindex, both written by Romain Lachat (http://www.romain-lachat.ch/software.html). The original cindex package would not allow for inclusion of the required weights for cantonal oversampling. I thus want to thank Romain for providing me with the new version of cindexw, which incorporates the option of weighting.
- 28.
For both the calculation of the predicted probabilities for a certain party choice and the subsequent computation of confidence intervals the used program cindexw relies on simulation techniques. First, the program simulates the distribution of the regression parameters after each model estimation. Based on these simulated parameters it computes a predicted value together with the corresponding cleavage strengths (lambda index). The retrieved information about the distribution of these indices then allows for calculation of their average value and confidence interval (Lachat 2007b).
- 29.
As an example, in the present case with five parties and a hypothetical social structure with three equally sized groups the (extreme) voting behaviour of group A voting 100 % for party 1, group B voting a 100 % for party 2 and group C splitting its votes with 70 % for party C, 20 % for party D and 10 % for party E results in a lambda of almost 0.42. In the more realistic case that groups A and B also split their votes among more than one party, the lambda value decreases further.
- 30.
The recently decreasing development, however, should not be interpreted as evidence of women starting again to rely on their husband’s electoral behaviour to form their own electoral habits.
- 31.
A second change in Swiss suffrage was the lowering of the voting age from 20 to 18 in 1991. In consequence, all surveys from 1991 onwards include this additional group of young voters. Contrary to the inclusion of all women, who represent half of the Swiss population, the group of young respondents (18–20 years) is quite small (at most they comprise around 3 % of all voters in a single survey). In addition, their voting behaviour does not differ too much in comparison to their older fellow citizens (there are some exceptions, but these might also be due to the small number of respondents in the age group under 20). In sum, the lowering of the voting age does not bias the results and is thus negligible for the following analyses.
- 32.
Almost all second graphs are thus based on the same model including all cleavage variables plus control variables. For social class I rely on the more detailed variables of the Oesch scheme as control (instead of the reduced three class scheme), for religion on the denomination plus church attendance (instead of the combined variable) and for rural-urban on the dummy variable (instead of the five category scheme). The detailed multinomial regression results for this full model are shown in Table B.10 in the online appendix. The online appendix can be found under http://extras.springer.com.
- 33.
The problems concern the FDP vote in the basic models of church attendance (1995) and of language (2003). In these two cases the FDP vote is not independent of the other available voting choices. However, as noted by Long and Freese (2001, 191), one has to be careful when interpreting the available IIA tests, since they often “give inconsistent results and provide little guidance to violations of the IIA assumptions”.
- 34.
A reading example to separate the effects due to behavioural or structural changes in the graphs is the following: Regarding only the values for the constant social structure (x-marks) display changes based solely on the behaviour of social groups (as their size is fixed). The comparison between the values based on the actual structure and the constant one in each single election year displays structural changes. Whenever the x-marks are above the circles, this stands for structural dealignment compared to 1971/75. X-marks below the circles stand for a positive effect of structural changes which might be accordingly labelled structural realignment. The development of the gap between normal and constant values (circles and x-marks) in later elections also provides a comparison of how far structural changes have influenced the cleavage strength between certain elections.
- 35.
To recall, this combined variable distinguishes church attendance by denomination (Catholic or Protestant) and a final group comprising all other denominations or non-members.
- 36.
In 2011, though, the impact of church attendance is almost the same as the one of the combined measure.
- 37.
These results confirm the findings for Switzerland by Lachat (2007a) using a different class scheme (adapted EGP scheme) in the sense of having a rather stable influence in the last five elections, but contradict his results as I find a clear decline when comparing the 1975 impact with recent values. Although both analyses are based on the same data basis, this exemplifies how decisive the operationalisation of the class variable is.
- 38.
Except for 1995, though, the lambda for Protestants is still inside the 95 % confidence interval for Catholics. The difference is thus not statistically significant.
- 39.
Except for the 2011 election in the basic model, though, the differences are not statistically significant.
- 40.
In principle the idea of a difference in terms of abstention is not restricted to the class cleavage. However, as there is no theoretical basis for the other cleavages, e.g. why Catholics should participate less/more than Protestants or city residents vote less/more than their fellow citizens in the countryside, the differences in electoral participation are only discussed for social class.
- 41.
In theory, the turnout bias consists of an overrepresentation of voters (selection bias) and overreporting by respondents (e.g. Sciarini and Goldberg 2016). Whereas overreporting should be a rather stable phenomenon over time, the selection bias is quite important for the longitudinal perspective. In times of decreasing response rates in surveys, the selection bias might have led to a higher overrepresentation of voters in more recent surveys. This might then lead to an even stronger overestimation of participation in the latest elections. Consequently, not correcting for the growing voter overrepresentation would thus strongly bias the results of the following calculation of participation ratios.
- 42.
The graphical pattern strongly resembles the one found by Rennwald (2014) using a very similar model with data until 2007. However, I disagree in her interpretation of the results, which is to some extent linked to the additional results for 2011 showing a widening gap compared to 2007, but also to the distinction between absolute and relative differences. Regarding absolute differences the values from 1971 and 2007 indeed would not be very different between socio-cultural specialists and production workers. Given a general lower level of participation, however, relative differences are the decisive factor to consider, which show a rising trend. The additional value for 2011 even strengthens the corresponding results, which the following analysis using participation ratios confirms.
- 43.
For such a comparison of cleavage strengths one has to keep in mind that the number of social groups used for calculating the lambda index influences the resulting values. In simple terms, the smaller the number of social groups, the easier it is to get a high lambda value, e.g. in the simple case of two social groups voting for two different parties. As some of the cleavage variables include only two categories (rural-urban dummy), but others rely on nine categories (combined religious measure), some of the differences in the lambda value may be due to the different number of categories used. However, as the following discussion will show, there is no systematic ranking in terms of the used number of categories. Quite contrarily, the lambda index is higher for the cleavages that are measured with a higher number of categories (religion, social class). Still, for a substantial interpretation the possible influence of the number of categories should be kept in mind.
- 44.
Especially in the case of the SP, this adaptation process and sharpening of their profile is still not yet finished.
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Goldberg, A.C. (2017). Longitudinal Impact of Cleavages. In: The Impact of Cleavages on Swiss Voting Behaviour. Contributions to Political Science. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-46000-0_3
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