Anticipating Emerging Risks and Vulnerabilities from Sea Level Rise Induced Preventive Resettlement in Greater Alexandria, Egypt
Taking the city of Alexandria in Egypt as an example, this chapter discusses a hypothetical vulnerability scenario for sea level rise (SLR) induced preventive resettlement in Low Lying Coastal Zones (LLCZ). As preventive resettlement may become a realistic –and under some conditions –unavoidable adaptation option to sea level rise and storm surge impacts in the future, the assessment and anticipation of future vulnerabilities and (human) security risks arising from preventive resettlement become important, particularly in developing countries. In this research, a conceptual framework for the anticipation of preventive resettlement induced vulnerabilities has been developed and applied to: (1) assess the conditions that deem Greater Alexandria as uninhabitable; (2) identify exposure of Greater Alexandria to sea level risk and characteristics of communities that require resettlement assistance; and (3) anticipate future vulnerabilities emerging from preventive resettlement. The results for Alexandria show that if current trends in socio-economic conditions prevail, communities will be vulnerable to unemployment and homelessness after being resettled. The assessment can be used to inform policy makers about the needs and possibilities to prepare well in advance for a preventive and people-centered resettlement in order to avoid large-scale displacement. This could lead to associated security challenges of trapped populations as soon as sea level rise progressively impacts exposed communities. Policies that tackle these future vulnerabilities could provide a win-win solution by meeting communities’ needs today and in the future, especially when it comes to reorganizing livelihoods in the course of preventive resettlement.
KeywordsSea level rise Vulnerability scenario Preventive resettlement Alexandria
This research has been funded by the European Commission (GA: 244443), as part of the research project “Climate Change, Hydro Conflict and Human Security (CLICO)”. The authors would like to thank Mr. Hannes Etter for the preparation of the maps, Ms. Anastasia Rotenberg for proof-reading and language editing, and Ms. Joanna Pardoe for her helpful comments on this research.
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