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Environmental Change and Human Security in Africa and the Middle East pp 133–157Cite as

Anticipating Emerging Risks and Vulnerabilities from Sea Level Rise Induced Preventive Resettlement in Greater Alexandria, Egypt

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Abstract

Taking the city of Alexandria in Egypt as an example, this chapter discusses a hypothetical vulnerability scenario for sea level rise (SLR) induced preventive resettlement in Low Lying Coastal Zones (LLCZ). As preventive resettlement may become a realistic –and under some conditions –unavoidable adaptation option to sea level rise and storm surge impacts in the future, the assessment and anticipation of future vulnerabilities and (human) security risks arising from preventive resettlement become important, particularly in developing countries. In this research, a conceptual framework for the anticipation of preventive resettlement induced vulnerabilities has been developed and applied to: (1) assess the conditions that deem Greater Alexandria as uninhabitable; (2) identify exposure of Greater Alexandria to sea level risk and characteristics of communities that require resettlement assistance; and (3) anticipate future vulnerabilities emerging from preventive resettlement. The results for Alexandria show that if current trends in socio-economic conditions prevail, communities will be vulnerable to unemployment and homelessness after being resettled. The assessment can be used to inform policy makers about the needs and possibilities to prepare well in advance for a preventive and people-centered resettlement in order to avoid large-scale displacement. This could lead to associated security challenges of trapped populations as soon as sea level rise progressively impacts exposed communities. Policies that tackle these future vulnerabilities could provide a win-win solution by meeting communities’ needs today and in the future, especially when it comes to reorganizing livelihoods in the course of preventive resettlement.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Preventive resettlement is identified as: “a corrective mitigation measure through intervention in an existing risk condition corresponding to the sphere of public policy, that is based on recognition of the rights and responsibilities of public, private, and civil society stakeholders; is guided by principles of effectiveness, equity, and precedence of public wellbeing; and takes place in a specific economic, institutional, legal, and political context. Disaster risk management requires a decision taken jointly by the government and communities to reach consensus regarding acceptable and feasible safety conditions in the context of somewhat uncertain events and regarding the assumption of responsibility for the consequences of decisions taken.” (Correa 2011).

  2. 2.

    The term „mal-implementation” in the context of resettlement refers to difficulties; e.g. of government institutions; to adequately comply with the requirements and the needs of the resettled populations during the transformation process creating for them livelihood risks.

  3. 3.

    “Mal adaptation refers to actions, or inaction that may lead to increased risk of adverse climate-related outcomes, increased vulnerability to climate change, or diminished welfare, now or in the future” (Noble et al. 2014, cop. 2014).

  4. 4.

    The four stage model developed by Scudder reveals that changes in vulnerability and risk vary in different phases of resettlement and that various and multidimensional stresses relocated people and households have experienced can be classified and differentiated in four phases [23,24]: (1) ‘planning and recruitment’ (2) ‘physical removal of communities’ (3) ‘community formation and economic development’, (4) ‘handling over and incorporation’.

  5. 5.

    For better reading and comprehension, where necessary, reference numbers have been allocated made to the specific framework component.

  6. 6.

    CAPMAS (Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistic of the Arab Republic of Egypt). Population & Food in Egypt from 2001 to 2006. Available at: http://www.msrintranet.capmas.gov.eg/pls/educ/npopulation_e?lang=1&lname=FREE (last retrieval: 23.04.2015).

  7. 7.

    Tradingeconomics.com: Industry; value added (% of GDP) in Egypt, and other data. Available at: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/egypt/industry-value-added-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html (last retrieval: 23.04.2015).

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Acknowledgements

This research has been funded by the European Commission (GA: 244443), as part of the research project “Climate Change, Hydro Conflict and Human Security (CLICO)”. The authors would like to thank Mr. Hannes Etter for the preparation of the maps, Ms. Anastasia Rotenberg for proof-reading and language editing, and Ms. Joanna Pardoe for her helpful comments on this research.

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  1. United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), UN-Campus, Platz der Vereinten Nationen 1, 53113, Bonn, Germany

    Niklas Baumert & Julia Kloos

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  1. Niklas Baumert
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Correspondence to Niklas Baumert .

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  1. Research Laboratory for Territorial Governance, Human Security and Sustainability (LAGOS) Faculty of Law, Economics and Social Sciences, Ibn Zohr University of Agadir, Agadir, Morocco

    Mohamed Behnassi

  2. Ecologic Institute, Berlin, Germany

    Katriona McGlade

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Baumert, N., Kloos, J. (2017). Anticipating Emerging Risks and Vulnerabilities from Sea Level Rise Induced Preventive Resettlement in Greater Alexandria, Egypt. In: Behnassi, M., McGlade, K. (eds) Environmental Change and Human Security in Africa and the Middle East. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-45648-5_8

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