Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

A Conceptual Framework for Applying the Anticipatory Theory of Complex Systems to Improve Safety and Quality in Healthcare

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Anticipation and Medicine

Abstract

Effective anticipation is a fundamental characteristic of highly reliable organizations. In Rosen’s anticipatory theory of complex systems, all living systems and virtually all other complex systems require anticipatory models to maintain an organized state. This paper provides an overview of Rosen’s anticipatory theory of complex systems and presents a conceptual framework for applying this framework to improve safety and quality in healthcare. Organizational interventions based on this theory could include education of clinicians, patients, and families on how anticipatory complex systems function and improve safety in clinical environments, and systems interventions to promote optimal concordance between a team’s model of a clinical situation and the actual clinical situation. Enhanced general understandings of anticipatory complex systems and of their failure modes could help reduce communications failures that are a common cause of serious adverse events.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
eBook
USD 16.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  1. Chassin, M.R., Loeb, J.M.: High reliability healthcare: getting there from here. The Milbank Q. 91, 459–490 (2013)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Leonard, M., Graham, S., Bonacum, D.: The human factor: the critical importance of effective teamwork and communication in providing safe care. Qual. Saf. Health Care 13(Suppl 1), i85–i90 (2004)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Sturmberg, J.P., Martin, C.M., Katerndahl, D.A.: Systems and complexity thinking in the general practice literature. Ann. Fam. Med. 12, 66–74 (2014)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Kannampallil, T.G., Schauer, G.F., Cohen, T., Patel, V.L.: Considering complexity in healthcare systems. J. Biomed. Inform. 44, 943–947 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Weick, K.E., Sutcliffe, K.M.: Managing the Unexpected. Wiley, San Francisco (2007)

    Google Scholar 

  6. Rosen, R.: Anticipatory Systems. Philosophic, Mathematic, and Methodological Foundations, 2nd edn. Springer, New York (2012)

    Google Scholar 

  7. Nadin, M.: Anticipation (special issue). Int. J. Gen Syst 39(1), 35–133 (2010)

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  8. Nadin, M.: Mind—Anticipation and Chaos (Milestones in Research and Discovery). Belser Presse, Stuttgart/Zurich (1991)

    Google Scholar 

  9. Nadin, M.: Anticipation—The End Is Where We Start From. Müller Verlag, Basel (2003)

    Google Scholar 

  10. Zadeh, L.A.: Fuzzy sets as a basis for theory of possibility. Fuzzy Sets Syst. 1, 3–28 (1978)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  11. Staiger, T.O.: Anticipation in complex systems: potential implications for improving safety and quality in healthcare. In: Proceedings of the First International Conference on Systems and Complexity in Healthcare (In press)

    Google Scholar 

  12. Louie, A.H.: Robert Rosen’s anticipatory systems. Foresight 12, 18–29 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Miller-Keane, O’Toole, M.T.: Miller-Keane Encyclopedia and Dictionary of Medicine, Nursing, and Allied Health, 7th edn. Elsevier, Amsterdam (2003)

    Google Scholar 

  14. Gen Script Glossary of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology “feed-forward regulation”. http://www.google.com/webhp?nord=1#nord=1&q=gen+script+glossary+of+biochemistry

  15. Rosen, R.: Life Itself. Columbia University Press, New York (1991)

    Google Scholar 

  16. Rouse, W.B.: Health care as a complex adaptive system. The Bridge 38, 17–25 (2008)

    Google Scholar 

  17. Rosen, R.: Fundamentals of Measurement and Representations of Natural Systems. North-Holland, New York (1978)

    Google Scholar 

  18. Rosen, R.: Feedforwards and global system failure: a general mechanism for senescence. J. Theor. Biol. 74, 579–590 (1978)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Rock, R.: SCARF: a brain-based model for collaborating with and influencing others. Neuroleadership J., 1–9 (2008)

    Google Scholar 

  20. Romero-Brufau, S., Gaines, K., Huddleston, J.: Nurses’ ability to identify physiological deterioration of hospitalized patients. In: 11th International Conference on Rapid Response Systems and Medical Emergency Teams. Amsterdam (2015)

    Google Scholar 

  21. Parush, A., Campbell, C., Hunter, A. et al.: Situation Awareness and Patient Safety. https://www.ottawahospital.on.ca/wps/wcm/connect/29bd8b804b25b21b8f79df1faf30e8c1/Primer_SituationalAwareness_PatientSafety.pdf?MOD=AJPERES

  22. Starmer, A.J., Spector, N.D., Srivastava, R., et al.: I-PASS, a mnemonic to standardize verbal handoffs. Pediatrics 129, 201–204 (2012)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Staiger, T.O., Jarvik, J.G., Deyo, R.A., Martin, B., Braddock, C.B.: Patient-physician agreement as a predictor of outcomes in patients with back pain. JGIM 20, 935–937 (2005)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Zehnder, R., Staiger, T.O.: Association between patient-physician agreement and outcomes in primary care. In: Society of General Internal Medicine. Northwest Regional Meeting. Seattle (2006)

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Box 356330, Seattle, Washington, 98195, USA

    Thomas O. Staiger & Patricia A. Kritek

  2. School of Nursing University of Washington, Seattle, USA

    Erin L. Blakeney & Brenda K. Zierler

  3. UW Medicine Organizational Development and Training, University of Washington, Seattle, USA

    Kurt O’Brien & Ross H. Ehrmantraut

Authors
  1. Thomas O. Staiger
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Patricia A. Kritek
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Erin L. Blakeney
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Brenda K. Zierler
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Kurt O’Brien
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Ross H. Ehrmantraut
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Thomas O. Staiger .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. antÉ—Institute for Research in Anticipatory Systems, University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson, Texas, USA

    Mihai Nadin

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2017 Springer International Publishing Switzerland

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Staiger, T.O., Kritek, P.A., Blakeney, E.L., Zierler, B.K., O’Brien, K., Ehrmantraut, R.H. (2017). A Conceptual Framework for Applying the Anticipatory Theory of Complex Systems to Improve Safety and Quality in Healthcare. In: Nadin, M. (eds) Anticipation and Medicine. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-45142-8_2

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-45142-8_2

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-319-45140-4

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-319-45142-8

  • eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation