The Rouhani Presidency: The Road to Rollback

Abstract

Backed by the Supreme Leader, Hassan Rouhani, a leading Normalizer, was elected president in 2012 with a mission to initiate negotiations with the P5+1 (the United States, Great Britain, France, Germany, Russia, and China). But the political movement associated with Ahmadinejad, the leaders of Revolutionary Guards, and the ultra-conservative clerics, many serving in the judiciary, pushed back against Rouhani, either through harsh public attacks or through an unprecedented clamp-down on human rights, designed to embarrass the president at home and abroad. The success in negotiating an interim framework agreement which provided some sanctions relief boosted the president’s standing. In spite of widespread skepticism, after a difficult negotiations process, Iran and the P5+1 reached the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in July 2015.

From an Iranian perspective, the terms of the JCPOA are very harsh as they would set back virtually all the gains made by the program. If finally approved by Tehran, such an extensive rollback is a clear indication that smart sanctions are a critical tool in the fight against proliferation.